农户宅基地退出意愿的空间分异与影响因素分析——以洪泽湖和高邮湖农区为例

SPATIAL VARIATION OF FARMERS' HOMESTEAD EXIT INTENTION AND ITS DETERMINANTS——A CASE STUDY ON AGRICULTURAL AREA OF HONGZE LAKE AND GAOYOU LAKE

关键词:  农户宅基地退出意愿  乡村地域环境  驱动机制  多尺度地理加权回归模型  感知价值理论

Key words:  farmers' homestead exit intention  rural regional environment  driving mechanism  multi scale geographically weighted regression  perceived value theory

摘要:

目的 厘清乡村地域环境与农户宅基地退出意愿间的异质性关系对因地制宜制定乡村发展政策具有重要意义。方法 文章基于感知价值理论构建乡村地域环境对农户宅基地退出意愿的影响机制，以洪泽湖和高邮湖农区全体农户为研究对象，运用空间自相关、多尺度地理加权回归模型（MGWR），刻画农户宅基地退出意愿的村际分异，定量分析乡村地域环境对农户宅基地退出意愿影响的空间异质性及作用机理。结果 （1）研究区域农户宅基地退出意愿具有显著的空间分异和空间关联并存特征，热点集聚于县域门户地区呈团块状、冷点分布于灌溉干渠两侧呈条带状。（2）MGWR结果显示，17个因子中，10个因子的带宽较大，为全局驱动因子；其余7个为局部驱动因子。（3）全局驱动因子中影响力较强的依次为至市区便捷度、高层次就医机会、与河湖的距离；局部驱动因子均具备双向驱动效应，自然村平均规模的驱动力异质性及强度在17个因子中最大，规模上工业总产值、至幼儿园便捷度、抚养比等因子也处于较高水平。结论 应完善乡村普惠性设施，因村制宜解决地域性顽疾，科学进行村镇规划布局。

Abstract:

It is of great significance to clarify the heterogeneous relationship between rural regional environment and farmers' homestead exit intention in order to formulate rural development policies. Based on the perceived value theory, this paper constructed an analytical framework of the impact on rural regional environment of farmers' homestead exit intention. And taking all farmers in Hongze Lake and Gaoyou Lake agricultural area as the research object, it used spatial autocorrelation analysis to describe the spatial differentiation of farmers' homestead exit intention, and adopted multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) to analyze the spatial heterogeneity and its mechanism of the impact on rural regional environmental factors of farmers' homestead exit intention. The results showed that: (1) Farmers' homestead exit intention in the study area had significant spatial differentiation and spatial correlation characteristics, and presented a spatial pattern of "hot spots clustered in the county portal and cold spots distributed in strips on both sides of the main irrigation canal". (2) The bandwidth results of MGWR showed that among the 17 indicators, the bandwidth of 10 indicators was large, which was the global driving factor, and the other 7 indicators were local driving factors. (3) Among the global driving factors, the most influential ones were the convenience to the urban area, high-level medical opportunities, and the distance from rivers and lakes; Local driving factors all had binary driving effects. The driving force heterogeneity and intensity of the average size of natural villages were the largest among the 17 factors, and factors such as gross output value of industries above designated size, convenience to kindergartens and dependency ratio were also at a high level. Therefore, the implications for policy are to improve rural inclusive facilities, solve local persistent diseases according to rural conditions, and carry out village and town planning scientifically.