中国农业生态价值测算及其时空演进——基于调整系数法新思路的分析

MEASUREMENT OF AGRICULTURAL ECOLOGICAL VALUE AND ITS TEMPORAL-SPATIAL EVOLUTION IN CHINA：ANALYSIS BASED ON NEW IDEAS OF THE ADJUSTMENT COEFFICIENT METHOD

关键词:  农业生态价值  同比GML指数  调整系数法  非期望产出  时空演进

Key words:  agricultural ecological value  year on year GML index  adjustment coefficient method  unexpected output  temporal-spatial evolution

摘要:

目的 随着农业生态价值被越来越多关注，探索从不同思路对其进行测算与分析，对加快促进我国农业高质量发展具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。方法 文章基于调整系数法新思路对中国农业生态价值进行试验性测算，运用包含非期望产出DEA的同比GML指数计算出2012—2018年30个省（市、自治区，不含港澳台和西藏）的农业绿色生产效率，然后将其作为调整系数测算得到各地农业生态总价值和农业生态单位价值，并对其时空演进做了探索性分析。结果 （1）2012—2018年全国农业生态价值持续增长，特别是2016—2018年因农业绿色生产效率提升较快、农业生态价值有较大幅度增长；（2）农业生态总价值高水平集聚区由中东部向多个方向分化，农业生态单位价值高水平聚集区由东南部地区向西北部地区延伸；（3）该过程主要受产值规模、技术进步和绿色发展政策的综合影响。结论 要充分发挥农业绿色生产领先地区的“头雁”作用、高度重视各农业大省的“雁阵”作用，同时从绿色技术与支持政策多个层面发力，促进我国农业绿色高质量发展。

Abstract:

As more and more attention has been paid to agricultural ecological value, it is of great theoretical value and practical significance to explore different ways to measure and analyze it in order to accelerate the high-quality development of agriculture in China. Based on the new idea of the adjustment coefficient method, this paper made an experimental calculation of China's agricultural ecological value, calculated the agricultural green production efficiency of 30 provinces (cities, autonomous regions excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and Tibet) from 2012 to 2018 by using the year-on-year GML index including the unexpected output DEA, and then used it as the adjustment coefficient to calculate the agricultural ecological total value and unit value of each province, and made an exploratory analysis of its temporal-spatial evolution. The results were showed as follows. (1) The national agricultural ecological value continued to grow from 2012 to 2018, especially from 2016 to 2018 due to the rapid improvement of agricultural green production efficiency and the significant increase of agricultural ecological value; (2) The high-level agglomeration area of total agricultural ecological value was differentiated from the middle east to multiple directions, and the high-level agglomeration area of agricultural ecological unit value extended from the southeast to the northwest; (3) This process was mainly affected by the scale of output value, technological progress and green development policy. Therefore, it is necessary to give full play to the "head geese" role of leading agricultural areas, attach great importance to the "geese array" role of major agricultural provinces, and make efforts from multiple levels of green technology and support policies to promote the green and high-quality development of agriculture in China.