农业全要素生产率增长对农业用水强度的影响

THE IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY’S GROWTH ON THE INTENSITY OF AGRICULTURAL WATER USAGE

关键词:  农业全要素生产率  技术效率  技术进步  农业用水强度  面板门槛模型

Key words:  agricultural total factor productivity  technical efficiency  technical progress  intensity of agricultural water usage  panel threshold model

摘要:

目的 探索农业全要素生产率增长对农业用水强度的影响，为实现农业节水增效和可持续发展提供新的经验依据。方法 文章基于2004—2017年中国31省（市、自治区，不含港澳台）面板数据，采用随机前沿函数法、面板回归模型和面板门槛模型探讨了农业全要素生产率对农业用水强度的影响效果、作用方式和异质性。结果 （1）农业全要素生产率增长对农业用水强度具有显著负向影响，具体来说主要通过技术进步降低农业用水强度；（2）农业全要素生产率对农业用水强度的影响具有门槛特征，伴随着农业全要素生产率门槛值的跨越，农业全要素生产率提升对农业用水强度的负向影响程度得到增强，从而带来农业用水强度的阶梯性下降；（3）从水稀缺程度异质性看，农业全要素生产率可以有效降低高度缺水地区和中度缺水地区的农业用水强度，而对低度缺水地区的农业用水强度无显著影响。结论 根据水稀缺程度因地制宜提升农业全要素生产率，使其尽早跨越门槛阈值，将会是实现农业节水增效的关键。

Abstract:

This study aims to explore the impact of agricultural total factor productivity's growth on the intensity of agricultural water usage，so as to provide a new empirical basis for saving water and promoting water efficiency in agriculture as well as boosting sustainable development of agriculture. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces (cities, autonomous regions, excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) in China from 2004 to 2017, stochastic frontier function method, panel regression as well as panel threshold model was used to explore the impacts of agricultural total factor productivity on the intensity of agricultural water usage as well as mechanism and heterogeneity. Results showed that: (1) There were significant negative impacts of agricultural total factor productivity on the intensity of agricultural water usage mainly through technological progress. (2) The impacts of agricultural total factor productivity on the intensity of agricultural water usage had a threshold characteristic. With agricultural total factor productivity leaping over threshold value, the increase of agricultural total factor productivity would enhance the degree of negative impacts on the intensity of agricultural water usage, bringing about a staged decline in the intensity of agricultural water usage. (3) From the perspective of the heterogeneity of water scarcity, as for high and moderate water scarcity areas, agricultural total factor productivity could effectively reduce the intensity of agricultural water usage while it had no significant impact on agricultural water intensity from areas with low water scarcity. Therefore, promoting agricultural total factor productivity according to local region's water scarcity as well as leaping it over threshold value as quickly as possible will be the key to achieve high-quality agricultural development with water saving.