数字经济对粮食生产碳排放的影响研究——来自长江经济带108个地级市的经验证据

RESEARCH ON THE IMPACT OF THE DIGITAL ECONOMY ON CARBON EMISSION OF GRAIN PRODUCTION——EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM 108 PREFECTURE-LEVEL CITIES IN THE YANGTZE RIVER ECONOMIC BELT

关键词:  “双碳”目标  数字经济  农业碳排放强度  长江经济带  粮食绿色生产

Key words:  "double carbon" goal  digital economy  carbon emission intensity  Yangtze River Economic Belt  green grain production

摘要:

目的 研究数字经济对粮食生产碳排放的影响及其作用机制，在“双碳”目标下为中国粮食生产实现低碳可持续发展找准减碳动能和路径提供参考。方法 文章基于2011—2019年长江经济带108个地级市粮食种植统计数据，运用碳排放系数法从化肥、农药使用等6个碳排放源测度碳排放水平，基于动态面板模型考察数字经济对粮食生产碳排放的影响，进一步采用中介效应模型从“技术效应”和“结构效应”视角考察其减碳机理。结果 （1）数字经济发展显著降低了粮食生产中的碳排放水平，数字经济每提高1%，粮食生产碳排放强度下降7.8%，经过稳健性检验结果仍然可信；（2）数字经济在粮食生产中的碳减排效应存在明显的异质性，一是在中东部地区、粮食主产区和产销平衡区其减碳作用更大也更显著，二是在地形平坦的平原的减碳效应明显大于土地禀赋稍差的山地、丘陵地区，三是2015年实施的化肥“零增长”政策显著强化了减碳效果；（3）粮食生产技术进步的“技术效应”和粮食种植规模化、专业化的“结构效应”，是数字经济削减粮食生产碳排放的重要作用机制。结论 作为新兴关键生产要素，数字经济快速延伸和渗透到粮食生产环节，可以有效提升粮食生产技术水平和种植规模化、专业化水平，进而推动粮食生产低碳高质量发展。

Abstract:

Study the impact of the digital economy on carbon emissions in grain production and its mechanism, and provide reference for China's grain production to identify the carbon reduction momentum and path to achieve low-carbon sustainable development under the "double carbon" goal. Based on the statistical data of grain planting in 108 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2011 to 2019, this paper used the carbon emission coefficient method to measure the level of agricultural carbon emissions from six carbon emission sources, such as fertilizer and pesticide use. Based on the dynamic panel model, this paper examined the impact of the digital economy on carbon emissions from grain production, and further used the intermediary effect model to examine its carbon reduction mechanism from the perspective of "technical effect" and "structural effect". The results were indicated as follows. (1) The development of the digital economy significantly reduced the level of carbon emissions in grain production. For every 1% increase in the digital economy, the intensity of carbon emissions in grain production would decrease by 7.8%. The results of the robustness test were still credible; (2) There was obvious heterogeneity in the carbon emission reduction effect of the digital economy in grain production. Firstly, the carbon reduction effect was more significant in the central and eastern regions, the main grain production areas, and the production and marketing balance areas. Secondly, the carbon reduction effect in the plain with flat terrain was significantly greater than that in the mountainous and hilly areas with a slightly poor land endowment. Thirdly, the "zero growth" policy of chemical fertilizer implemented in 2015 significantly strengthened the carbon reduction effect; (3) The "technical effect" of technological progress in grain production and the "structural effect" of large-scale and specialized grain planting were important mechanisms for the digital economy to reduce carbon emissions from grain production. Therefore, as an emerging key factor of production, the rapid extension and penetration of the digital economy into grain production can effectively improve the level of grain production technology and the level of large-scale and professional planting, to achieve low-carbon and high-quality development of grain production.