“保险+期货”模式与农户增收——基于全国124个县的多期双重差分估计

THE PILOT OF "INSURANCE + FUTURES" AND FARMERS' INCOME——A ESTIMATION OF 124 COUNTIES IN CHINA BY MULTI-TREM AND DOUBLE DID MODEL

关键词:  “保险+期货”  农户收入  影响路径  多期双重差分  异质性分析

Key words:  pilot of "insurance+futures" (PIF)  farmers' income  impact pathway  time-varying DID  heterogeneity analysis

摘要:

目的 “保险+期货”作为我国金融支农的重要创新，对农户实现增收起着关键作用。在农产品价格风险成为农户主要风险的背景下，分析“保险+期货”对农户增收的影响路径和效果具有重要的理论和现实意义。方法 文章基于准自然实验的思路，将“保险+期货”试点视作外部冲击，构建多期双重差分模型，采用2011—2020年中国124个县的面板数据，估计“保险+期货”试点对农户增收的影响路径和效果。结果 （1）“保险+期货”试点对农户具有显著的增收效应，使农村居民人均可支配收入平均提高了2.75%。（2）“保险+期货”试点对农户的增收效应存在异质性，对贫困县农户更为明显。（3）“保险+期货”试点对农户的增收效应是逐年递增的，试点第5年增收效应达到上限。结论 建议稳步扩大“保险+期货”试点、优先在脱贫地区开展“保险+期货”试点，并且积极探索建立收入保险。

Abstract:

An innovative pilot of "insurance+futures" (PIF) in China's financial support for agriculture is becoming a key to increasing the income of farmers. When a risk of price volatility of agricultural products becoming the main farmer's risk, it is significant to analyze the impact pathways and effects of PIF on farmers' income. Based on the quasi-natural experiments, we constructed a multi-period double difference model to estimate the impact pathways and effects of the PIF on farmers' income by using panel data of 124 counties from 2011 to 2020.The results were listed as follows. Firstly, the PIF had a significant income-increase effect on farmers, raising the per capita disposable income of rural residents by an average of 2.75%. Secondly, there was heterogeneity in such income-increasing effects, especially for farmers in impoverished counties. The last but not the least, the income-increasing effects of the PIF on farmers was increasing year by year, and reached the upper limit until the fifth year of the PIF. Therefore, this PIF should be gradually expanded, prioritized promotion in poverty-stricken areas, and the establishment of income insurance should be explored.