政策性农业保险的收入效应分析——来自华中3省的微观调查

ANALYSIS ON THE INCOME EFFECT OF POLICY AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE——EVIDENCE FROM MICRO SURVEY OF THREE PROVINCES IN CENTRAL CHINA

关键词:  农业保险  收入  工具变量  倾向得分匹配  分位数回归

Key words:  agricultural insurance  income  instrumental variable  propensity score matching  quantile regression

摘要:

目的 农业保险具有防灾减灾的功能，是重要的农村金融工具，体现了惠农富农的政策导向。随着农业保险进入高质量发展阶段，从微观农户层面研究农业保险的收入效应具有重要的现实价值。方法 文章基于2019年湖北、湖南和河南3省808份微观调查数据，运用多元线性回归模型和分位数回归模型，系统分析了农业保险对农户农业收入水平的影响。结果 农业保险会显著增加农户的农业收入水平，在使用工具变量方法处理互为因果问题，PSM方法纠正选择性偏误，以及截尾和缩尾处理后，结论依旧稳健。农业保险对不同收入农户的作用效果存在显著的异质性，随着分位数水平的提高，农业保险的增收效果逐渐减弱。结论 为充分发挥农业保险的保收增收功能，从强政策宣传，提高保险密度与深度；加大财政支持力度，完善保险体系建设；以及实施倾斜性保费补贴和赔偿机制三方面提出相关政策建议。

Abstract:

Agricultural insurance has the function of disaster prevention and reduction. It is an important rural financial tool, which reflects the policy guidance of benefiting and enriching farmers. With the agricultural insurance entering the high-quality development stage, it is of great practical value to study the income effect of agricultural insurance from the micro level of farmers. Based on 808 micro survey data from Hubei, Hunan and Henan provinces in 2019, this paper systematically analyzed the impact of agricultural insurance on farmers' agricultural income level by using multiple linear regression model and quantile regression model. The results were listed as follows. Agricultural insurance significantly increased the agricultural income level of farmers. After the instrumental variable method was used to deal with the problem of mutual causality, PSM method was used to correct the selective bias, and the truncating and tailing treatment, the conclusion was still robust. The effect of agricultural insurance on farmers with different incomes had significant heterogeneity. With the improvement of the quantile level, the effect of agricultural insurance on increasing income gradually weakened. In order to give full play to the function of ensuring and increasing income of agricultural insurance, we should put forward relevant policy recommendations from three aspects, strengthen policy publicity and improve the density and depth of insurance, increase financial support and improve the construction of the insurance system, and implement preferential premium subsidies and compensation mechanisms.