中国畜牧业生态效率时空特征及溢出效应研究

STUDY ON THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS AND SPILLOVER EFFECTS OF ECO-EFFICIENCY IN CHINA'S ANIMAL HUSBANDRY

关键词:  畜牧业生态效率  空间演化  溢出效应  空间马尔可夫链  动态空间杜宾模型

Key words:  animal husbandry eco-efficiency  spatial evolution  spillover effects  Spatial Markov Chains  Dynamic Spatial Durbin model

摘要:

目的 畜牧业已成为我国农业经济的重要支柱产业，推进畜牧业可持续发展对现代畜牧业建设具有重要意义。方法 文章综合运用非期望产出超效率EBM模型、核密度估计、标准差椭圆、空间马尔可夫链等方法，从时间和空间角度分析2002—2018年中国31省（市、自治区，不含港澳台）畜牧业生态效率的动态演化特征，并联立STIRPAT模型和动态空间杜宾模型分析影响因素的溢出效应。结果 （1）中国畜牧业生态效率整体水平较低，呈现波动上升趋势，在空间上有明显的阶梯性，逐渐形成“俱乐部收敛”式两极格局；（2）西部地区是畜牧业生态效率提高的重点区域，有加速向东部转移融合的趋势；（3）中国畜牧业生态效率的提升是一个长期且相对稳定的过程，地理空间格局对其影响显著，难以实现跨越式转移；（4）财富、人口、技术等方面因素对畜牧业生态效率表现出不同的短期和长期空间溢出效应。结论 中国畜牧业要走协同发展道路，注重生态补偿与区域联动，切实转变畜牧业发展方式，在各影响因素间寻找均衡点，构建优势互补、分工明确、竞争有度的产业生态体系，稳步实现畜牧业可持续发展，切不可急功近利。

Abstract:

Animal husbandry has become an important pillar industry of China's agricultural economy, and promoting the sustainable development of animal husbandry is of great significance to the construction of modern animal husbandry. In this paper, a set of undesirable output super-efficiency EBM model, kernel density estimation, standard deviation ellipses and Spatial Markov Chains, was introduced to examine the dynamic evolutionary characteristics of the eco-efficiency of the animal husbandry in 31 provinces of China from 2002 to 2018 from a temporal and spatial perspective, and the STIRPAT model and Dynamic Spatial Durbin model was associated to analyze the spillover effects of influencing factors. The outcomes were indicated as follows.(1) The overall level of eco-efficiency of China's animal husbandry was low with a fluctuating upward trend and an obvious gradient in space, gradually forming a bipolar pattern of "club convergence";(2) The western region as a key region for improving the eco-efficiency of animal husbandry was accompanied by a trend towards accelerated integration to the east;(3) The improvement of the eco-efficiency of China's animal husbandry was a long-term and relatively stable process, however, it was difficult to achieve a leapfrog transfer due to significant influence from geospatial pattern; Factors affecting the eco-efficiency of China's animal husbandry mainly included wealth, population and technology, of which the effects could be explained from the perspective of short and long-term spatial spillover. Hence, synergistic development is an effective measure for China's animal husbandry to achieve sustainable development target, while focusing on ecological compensation and regional coordination, effectively transforming the development approach and finding a balance between the various influencing factors with a view to constructing an industrial ecosystem with complementary advantages, a clear division of labor and moderate competition.