中国农业灰水足迹测度及时空分异研究

MEASUREMENT AND SPATIAL-TEMPORAL VARIATION OF AGRICULTURAL GREY WATER FOOTPRINT IN CHINA

关键词:  农业灰水足迹  时空分异  影响路径  空间自相关  通径分析  中国

Key words:  agricultural grey water footprint  spatial-temporal evolution  influence path  spatial autocorrelation  pathway analysis  China

摘要:

目的 科学评价中国农业水环境污染状况，直接关系到水资源可持续利用与农业绿色发展。方法 文章以农业灰水足迹为视角，纳入种植业、畜牧业和水产养殖业，全面测度1997－2020年中国31个省（市、自治区，不含港澳台）农业灰水足迹；借助空间自相关分析方法揭示其时空分异特征；运用通径分析法对其时空演变的影响因素进行分析。结果 （1）以2014年为界，中国农业灰水足迹整体上先增后减；分区域看，华中地区农业灰水足迹最高，西北地区最低，华东地区内部农业灰水足迹差距最大，东北地区内部差距较小；分省份看，上海和北京农业灰水足迹较低，且呈减少态势，河南和山东农业灰水足迹较高，且呈增长态势；空间特征上，中国农业灰水足迹以H—H型和L—H型集聚为主。（2）1997－2020年中国农业灰水足迹最为常见的跃迁类型为Ⅳ，空间凝聚度一直保持在70.97%，表明其空间结构变化具有明显的路径依赖特征；粮食产量是影响中国农业灰水足迹时空变化的共同因子。结论 各地应立足于区域资源禀赋，优化农业生产布局和合理调整农业种植结构，最大程度地提高粮食产出效率；适度控制人口规模，提高人口素质；持续推进化肥农药减量增效，加强农业面源污染治理。

Abstract:

Scientific evaluation of agricultural water environmental pollution in China is directly related to sustainable utilization of water resources and green development of agriculture. In this manuscript, the agricultural grey water footprint of 31 provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in China from 1997 to 2020 was comprehensively calculated, including planting, animal and aquaculture industry. In addition, the exploratory spatial data analysis method was used to reveal the temporal and spatial characteristics, and the path analysis method was used to analyze its influencing factors. The results showed that: Taking 2014 as the boundary, China's agricultural grey water footprint increased first and then decreased. The agricultural grey water footprint of Central China was the highest, while the Northwest region was the lowest, the gap of Eastern China was the largest, and the gap of Northeast region was small. Furthermore, the agricultural grey water footprint of Shanghai and Beijing was low and showed a decreasing trend, while the agricultural grey water footprint of Henan and Shandong was higher and showed an increasing trend. In terms of spatial characteristics, China's agricultural grey water footprint was generally dominated by H-H and L-H type. From 1997 to 2020, the most common leap type of China's agricultural grey water footprint was Ⅳ, and the spatial cohesion has been kept at 70.97%, indicated that its spatial structure changes had obvious path-dependent characteristics. Food production was the common factor affecting the spatial and temporal variation of the agricultural grey water footprint. Based on the results, this manuscript suggests that each region should be based on regional resource endowment, optimize the layout of agricultural production and adjust the agricultural planting structure reasonably, and maximize the efficiency of grain output. Moderate control the size of the population, improve the quality of the population. Continue to reduce the amount of chemical fertilizers and pesticides and increase their effectiveness, and strengthen the control of pollution from non-point agricultural sources.