三江平原井灌稻区农户休耕意愿影响因素研究——基于多分类有序Logit模型和结构方程模型

INFLUENCING FACTORS OF FARMERS’ FALLOW WILLINGNESS IN SANJIANG PLAIN*——BASED ON THE ORDERED LOGISTICS MODEL AND THE STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODEL

关键词:  休耕意愿  影响因素  计划行为理论  多分类有序Logit模型  结构方程模型

Key words:  fallow willingness  influencing factors  theory of planned behavior  ordered logistics model  structural equation model

摘要:

目的 分析三江平原井灌稻区农户休耕意愿的影响因素。方法 文章基于332份农户问卷调查数据，运用多分类有序Logit模型和结构方程模型分析农户休耕参与意愿的影响因素。结果 （1）中青年农户比老年农户休耕意愿更强；家庭劳动力人数与休耕意愿呈反向变化，家庭年收入、非农收入占比、家中是否有村干部与休耕意愿有显著正向关系；耕地受灾情况、是否曾参与过休耕、对休耕补贴金额和休耕年限的满意程度与休耕意愿呈显著正相关。家庭劳动力及个人精力不足、休耕养地作用认知、非农就业机会少是农户参与休耕的重要原因。（2）农户休耕意愿主要受到对休耕效益的认知以及外界压力的正向影响，且在休耕认知感知和休耕行为响应之间起到中介作用。农户对政策的理解对休耕行为具有显著的正向作用。农户对休耕效益的认知、外界影响力和对休耕办理流程的感知之间均存在显著相关关系。结论 农户个人及家庭特征、耕地特征、政策因素对农户休耕意愿存在显著影响。农户休耕行为遵循“认知判断－意向选择－行为响应”路径。

Abstract:

Based on the survey data of 332 farmers, the ordered logistics model was used to analyze the main influencing factors of farmers' fallow willingness in the paddy field irrigated by groundwater of Sanjiang Plain, and the structural equation model was used to further explore the influence mechanism of farmers' fallow willingness. The results were showed as follows. Firstly, young farmers had stronger fallow willingness than old farmers; family labor force had a negative influence on the fallow willingness, and household income, the proportion of non-agricultural income, and whether there were village cadres in the family had a significantly positive relationship with the fallow willingness. The disaster situation of farmland, whether left their land lie fallow before, satisfaction of subsidies and fallow years had positive correlation with the fallow willingness. Lack of family labor and physical strength, awareness of fallow benefits, and less non-agricultural employment opportunities were important reasons for farmers to leave their field fallow. Secondly, farmers' fallow willingness was mainly affected by their cognition of fallow benefits and external pressure, and played an intermediary role between fallow cognition and behavior response. Farmers' understanding of policies had a significant positive effect on fallow behavior. There was a significant correlation between farmers' cognition of fallow benefits, external influence and perception of fallow procedure. The conclusion is that farmers' individual and family characteristics, farmland characteristics and policy factors have significant influence on farmers' fallow willingness. Farmers' fallow behavior follows the path of “cognitive judgment-intentional choice-behavior response”.