风险区划下棉花“保险+期货”定价与运行机制分析——以山东省为例

ANALYSIS OF THE PRICING AND OPERATION MECHANISM OF COTTON "INSURANCE + FUTURES" UNDER THE RISK ZONING——A CASE STUDY OF SHANDONG PROVINCE

关键词:  棉花  保险+期货  蒙特卡洛模拟法  价格风险区划  运行机制

Key words:  cotton  insurance + futures  Monte Carlo simulation method  price risk zoning  operating mechanism

摘要:

目的 棉花“保险＋期货”模式的出台对保障棉农收入起着至关重要的作用，但随着地区差异性增强、生产成本上升、目标价格统一不变等问题的出现导致该模式的作用有所减弱。方法 文章基于2021—2022年棉花期现货价格数据，运用蒙特卡洛模拟法计算统一费率，运用熵值法对各地级市棉花价格风险进行综合评价，并运用聚类分析法对棉花种植区域进行风险区划。结果 （1）棉花价格风险主要集中于鲁西北和鲁西南地区，专业化程度是产生价格风险的主要原因；（2）修正目标价格和保险费率后，高风险区和次高风险区目标价格高于全省平均水平，保险费率增长速度随保障水平提高而降低；（3）通过构建期货市场、现货市场与保险公司的信息联动机制，拓宽了信息交流的渠道。结论 为更好地发挥“保险+期货”保障农民收入的作用，提出针对不同风险区域，实施精细化产品设计；多方主体相互配合，减轻地方政府保费压力两点建议。

Abstract:

The introduction of the cotton "insurance + futures" model plays a crucial role in ensuring the income of cotton farmers. However, regional differences are increasing, production costs are rising and the target price is uniform and unchanged. It is precisely because of these problems that the role of this model has been weakened. The following ways were taken in order to solve these problems. Firstly, the article was based on the cotton futures price data and spot price data from 2021 to 2022 in order to improve the cotton "insurance + futures" target price and unify rates by using Monte Carlo simulation method. Secondly, the entropy value method was used to comprehensively evaluate the cotton price risk in each prefecture-level city of Shandong province. Finally, the cluster analysis method was used to divide the risk areas of cotton planting areas. The results were showed as follows. (1) The cotton price risk was mainly concentrated in the northwest areas and southwest areas of Shandong province. And among the many causes of price risk, the degree of specialization was the main cause. (2) After revising the target price and premium rate, the target price for the highest risk area and the second highest risk were significantly higher than the provincial target price average. In addition, while the guarantee level continued to improve, the growth rate of cotton "insurance + futures" insurance rate continued to decline. In other words, the growth rate of insurance premium rate decreased with the increase of guarantee level. (3) After optimizing the cotton "insurance + futures" operation mechanism, the result showed that the channels for information exchange had been broadened. This was because the spot market was integrated into the operation mechanism, and the information linkage mechanism between the futures market, the spot market and the insurance companies was built up. In summary, two suggestions were put forward to better play the role of cotton "insurance + futures" to protect farmers' income. On the one hand, insurance companies should implement more refined product design for the different risk areas. Regions with different risks should correspond to different product types. On the other hand, multiple subjects should cooperate with each other in order to reduce the pressure of premiums on local governments. The financial pressure of Shandong provincial government in the insurance premium of cotton "insurance + futures" can be reduced through the cooperation of multiple subjects to share the insurance premium.