农产品贸易对农业绿色全要素生产率的空间溢出效应——基于农业产业集聚的调节作用

SPATIAL SPILLOVER EFFECTS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCT TRADE ON AGRICULTURAL GREEN TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY——BASED ON THE REGULATORY ROLE OF AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIAL AGGLOMERATION

关键词:  农产品贸易  农业绿色全要素生产率  农业产业集聚  空间溢出效应  异质性

Key words:  agricultural product trade  agricultural green total factor productivity  agricultural industry agglomeration  spatial spillover effect  heterogeneity

摘要:

目的 发展绿色农业，是实现我国农业可持续发展与绿色转型的一个新发展模式，探究农产品贸易和农业产业集聚对农业绿色全要素生产率的影响，为我国农业绿色发展提供参考。方法 文章基于新地理经济学，建立空间面板模型，利用2004—2020年中国31个省（市、自治区，不含港澳台）的面板数据，实证研究了农产品贸易对农业绿色全要素生产率的影响，以及农业产业集聚对上述影响的调节作用。结果 （1）全国及四大地区的农业绿色全要素生产率、农业技术进步和农业技术效率都呈上升发展趋势；（2）全国层面看，农产品贸易对农业绿色全要素生产率和农业技术进步有显著的倒“U”型影响，对农业技术效率有显著的“U”型影响；（3）邻近地区的农产品贸易水平只会对当地的农业技术进步有“U”型影响，对农业绿色全要素生产率和农业技术效率没有显著影响；（4）农产品贸易对农业绿色全要素生产率、农业技术进步和农业技术效率在四大地区、不同农产品贸易水平和不同农产品贸易结构地区存在异质性影响；农业产业集聚的调节作用在不同区域也存在异质性。结论 要推动农产品贸易由“数量增加”向“质量提升”转变，围绕提升农业绿色全要素生产率实施农产品贸易非均衡发展策略，同时倡导适度规模经营，更好地发挥农业产业集聚的绿色发展功能。

Abstract:

Developing green agriculture is a new development model for realizing agricultural sustainable development and green transition. This paper is intended to explore the influence of agricultural trade and agricultural industrial agglomeration on agricultural green total factor productivity, so as to provide references for agricultural green development. Based on the new geographic economics, this paper established a spatial panel model, and used the panel data of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in China from 2004 to 2020 to empirically study the impact of agricultural trade on green total factor productivity in agriculture, and the moderating effect of agricultural industry agglomeration to the above effects. The results were showed as follows.(1) The agricultural green total factor productivity, agricultural technology progress and agricultural technology efficiency in the whole country and the four major regions were all on the rise; (2) At the national level, agricultural product trade had a significant inverted "U"-shaped impact on agricultural green total factor productivity and agricultural technological progress, and a significant "U"-shaped impact on agricultural technical efficiency; (3) However, the trade level of agricultural products in neighboring regions only had a positive "U"-shaped impact on the progress of local agricultural technology, and had no significant impact on agricultural green total factor productivity and agricultural technology efficiency; （4）Agricultural green total factor productivity, agricultural technological progress and agricultural technological efficiency had heterogeneous effects in the four major regions, different levels of agricultural trade and regions with different structures of agricultural trade; there was also heterogeneity in the regulatory effect of agricultural industrial agglomeration in different regions. Therefore, it is necessary to promote the transformation of agricultural product trade from "quantity increase" to "quality improvement", implement an unbalanced development strategy of agricultural product trade around improving agricultural green total factor productivity, and at the same time advocate moderate scale operations，so as to better play the green development function of agricultural industry agglomeration.