全球农产品贸易网络演化与中国对策

THE EVOLUTION OF GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL TRADE NETWORK AND CHINA’S COUNTERMEASURES

关键词:  农产品  贸易网络  农业细分行业  加工贸易  社会网络分析

Key words:  agricultural products  trade networks  agricultural sub-sectors  processing trade  social network analysis

摘要:

目的 面对日益严峻复杂的国际经济政治环境，理清全球农产品贸易格局演变的特征及趋势，对于及时应对国际农产品市场风险、提高国际循环利用能力具有重要意义。方法 基于社会网络分析法，利用1996—2021年世界农产品贸易数据，文章从总体—行业—加工程度3个维度分别构建了全球农产品贸易网络，定量分析了全球农产品贸易网络的格局演化及重要节点特征。结果 （1）各国间农产品贸易关联日益加深，处于核心地位的国家数量显著增加，以美国为代表的单中心主导地位被削弱，但由少数国家主导全球农产品贸易的情形并未改变。（2）中国在全球农产品贸易网络中地位显著提升，点度中心度和接近中心度均位于前列，但中介中心度处于较低水平，说明中国对全球农业资源和市场的掌控能力依然不足。（3）各国在不同细分行业中的地位呈现明显的异质性，大多数国家的进口集中于少数贸易伙伴的少数产品，加工贸易逐渐成为全球农产品贸易的主流，发展高附加值农产品贸易成为各国农业贸易长远发展的战略选择。结论 为此，应持续优化农产品贸易布局，拓展与亚洲、拉美、非洲等新兴市场的贸易，不断提升农业全球价值链地位。

Abstract:

In the face of the increasingly severe and complex international economic and political environment, it is of great significance to clarify the characteristics and trends of the global agricultural trade pattern and to improve the international recycling capability in order to respond to international agricultural market risks in a timely manner. Based on social network analysis, and using world agricultural trade data from 1996 to 2021, this paper constructed a global agricultural trade network from three dimensions: namely, industry, and processing level, and quantitatively analyzed the pattern evolution and important node characteristics of the global agricultural trade network. The results were listed as follows. (1) The agricultural trade relations between countries were becoming increasingly deepened, and the number of countries in the core position significantly increased. The single-center dominant position represented by the United States had been weakened, but the situation where a few countries dominated global agricultural trade had not changed. (2) China's position in the global agricultural trade network significantly improved, with both the degree centrality and closeness centrality ranking high, but the centrality was at a low level, indicating that China's control over global agricultural resources and markets was still insufficient. (3) The positions of countries in different sub-industries showed obvious heterogeneity. Most countries' imports were concentrated on a few products from a few trading partners. Processing trade was gradually becoming the mainstream of global agricultural trade, and developing high value-added agricultural trade had become a strategic choice for the long-term development of agricultural trade in various countries. Therefore, China should continuously optimize the layout of agricultural trade, expand trade with emerging markets such as Asia, Latin America, and Africa, and constantly improve the position of agriculture in the global value chain.