政府支持农民工返乡创业对乡村振兴的效应研究——基于返乡创业试点政策的双重差分检验

RETURNING ENTREPRENEURSHIP ON RURAL REVITALIZATION——BASED ON THE DIFFERENCE TEST OF THE PILOT POLICY OF RETURNING ENTREPRENEURSHIP

关键词:  返乡创业  乡村振兴  产业兴旺  双重差分检验  县域

Key words:  returning home for entrepreneurship  rural revitalization  industrial prosperity  difference-in-differences test  county

摘要:

目的 通过分析政府支持农民工返乡创业是否影响乡村振兴，探究返乡创业试点政策在乡村振兴的5个层面产生何种效应。方法 文章使用熵值法测度了乡村振兴指数，衡量乡村振兴的发展水平，并将返乡创业试点这一政策作为一项准自然实验，选取2011—2019年我国11省447个县域的面板数据，运用双重差分法展开了探讨。结果 （1）返乡创业试点政策推动乡村振兴效应明显；相比于贫困县，返乡创业试点政策对非贫困县的影响系数更大；返乡创业试点政策促进产业兴旺发展效应最大，其次是生活富裕、乡风文明、生态宜居和治理有效。（2）县域经济发展水平、产业升级和地方政府财政能力等控制变量也对乡村振兴产生了作用。（3）从影响机制上看，返乡创业试点政策通过集聚效应、投资效应、人力资本效应对乡村振兴产生作用，其中投资效应的作用最大。结论 返乡创业试点政策的实施对乡村振兴产生了促进作用，而且政策效果在时间上具有时滞性。

Abstract:

By analyzing whether government support for migrant workers to return home to start businesses will affect rural revitalization, this paper explores the effect of pilot policies of returning home to start businesses in the five aspects of rural revitalization, namely "thriving industry, livable ecology, civilized village style, effective governance and rich life". In this study, the entropy method was used to measure the rural vitalization index, so as to measure the development level of rural vitalization. And the pilot policy of returning home to start a business was taken as a quasi-natural experiment. Panel data of 447 counties in 11 provinces from 2011 to 2019 were selected and discussed by using the difference-in-differences method. The results showed that the pilot policy of returning home to start a business had an obvious effect on promoting rural revitalization. Compared with poor counties, the impact coefficient of the pilot policy of returning home to start a business was greater in non-poor counties. The pilot policy of returning home to start a business had the greatest effect on promoting industrial prosperity, followed by rich life, civilized village style, ecological livable and effective governance. Control variables such as county economic development level, industrial upgrading and local government financial capacity also had an effect on rural revitalization. From the perspective of influence mechanism, the homecoming pilot policy had an effect on rural revitalization through agglomeration effect, investment effect and human capital effect, among which the investment effect was the most important. Therefore, the implementation of the homecoming pilot policy has promoted the rural revitalization, and the effect of the policy has a time lag.