风险冲击对农村居民家庭相对贫困的影响——基于CFPS数据的实证分析

THE IMPACT OF RISK SHOCKS ON RELATIVE POVERTY OF RURAL HOUSEHOLDS——AN EMPIRICAL STUDY BASED ON CFPS DATA

关键词:  风险冲击  相对贫困  农户  风险应对行为  门槛效应

Key words:  risk shocks  relative poverty  rural households  risk response behavior  threshold effect

摘要:

目的 试图从微观农户层面研究风险冲击对相对贫困的影响及作用路径，以期为增强农村居民家庭风险抵御能力、缓解相对贫困提供实证支撑。方法 文章基于中国家庭动态追踪调查（CFPS）数据，运用面板probit模型和固定效应模型实证分析风险冲击对农村居民家庭相对贫困的影响，用异质性分析和面板门槛回归模型探讨不同收入水平的农村居民家庭风险应对方式差异。结果 （1）风险冲击会增加农村居民家庭相对贫困的可能。其中，灾害冲击是导致农村居民家庭相对贫困的首要原因，其次是教育冲击和婚丧嫁娶、孩子出生等重大事件冲击，失业冲击和健康冲击的影响相对较小。（2）不同收入水平农村居民家庭的风险应对机制差异是导致相对贫困家庭无法摆脱相对贫困的重要原因。与高收入的农村居民家庭相比，低收入的农村居民家庭遭受风险冲击时会减少更多的农业生产投资，增加更少的人力资本投资，导致家庭现有的资源配置无法提升家庭未来的收入能力，使其囿于相对贫困无法脱离。结论 政府应构建更具韧性的国家治理体系、更具弹性的社会帮扶体系，在此基础上提高农村居民家庭的可持续生计能力，从而减少农村居民家庭陷入相对贫困的可能。

Abstract:

This paper attempts to analyze the mechanisms of risk shocks affecting relative poverty from the perspective of rural households, so as to provide empirical support for enhancing risk resilience of rural households and alleviating relative poverty. Based on the data of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this paper empirically analyzed the impact of risk shocks on relative poverty of rural households by using panel probit model and fixed effect model, and explored the differences in risk coping styles of rural households at different income levels by adopting heterogeneity analysis and panel threshold regression model. The results showed that risk shocks increased the probability of relative poverty among rural households. Disaster shocks were the primary cause of relative poverty among rural households, followed by education shocks and major event shocks. Unemployment shocks and health shocks had a smaller impact on relative poverty. Differences in risk coping styles of rural households at different income levels were one of the important reasons that relatively poor farmers could not get rid of relative poverty. Compared with high-income rural households, low-income rural households would reduce more investment in agricultural production and increase less investment in human capital when exposed to risk shocks, resulting in the existing resource allocation of households being unable to improve the household's future income capacity and keeping them trapped in relative poverty. Therefore, in order to reduce the possibility of rural households falling into relative poverty, the government should further build a more resilient national governance system and a more flexible social assistance system, and improve the sustainable livelihood capacity of rural households.