中国省域农产品出口贸易的时空演变及区域差异研究

RESEARCH ON THE SPATIO-TEMPORAL EVOLUTION AND REGIONAL DIFFERENCES OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS EXPORT TRADE IN CHINESE PROVINCES

关键词:  农产品出口贸易  时空演变  空间自相关  区域差异  泰尔指数

Key words:  agricultural export trade  space-time evolution  spatial self-correlation  regional difference  Theil index

摘要:

目的 农产品出口贸易是农业强国的重要组成部分，深入分析我国农产品出口贸易的时空演化规律及区域差异，有助于把握我国农产品出口贸易的发展规律、优化农产品出口贸易布局，对提高我国农业国际竞争力、建设农业强国具有重大的意义。方法 文章以我国31个省（市、区，不含港澳台）为研究对象，利用空间自相关模型和泰尔指数探究2002－2022年我国省域农产品出口贸易在时间和空间上的变化以及区域的差异性。结果 （1）我国总体、省域及区域农产品出口贸易规模都呈波动增加趋势，其中，东北区域自2010年开始出口贸易规模整体增速明显低于中西部区域，位于中西部的大部分省域农产品出口贸易都存在较大的发展潜力；（2）我国各省域农产品出口贸易在空间上存在明显的“高－高”和“低－低”集聚的特征。相比于2002年，2022年个别省域存在跃迁，落入了“低－低、低－高”集聚区；（3）农产品出口贸易整体及四大区域内部差异均呈扩大趋势，四大区域中，西部区域内部差异最大，并呈“M”型波动趋势，区域间差异在总体差异中占据主导地位但呈缓慢收敛趋势。结论 据此，提出在全国层面上，持续推进全方位开放、加强针对性政策扶持力度；在区域层面上，根据各区域农产品出口贸易发展的现实状况、资源禀赋、因地制宜地制定发展政策等建议，以期更好地推动我国农产品出口贸易的均衡发展。

Abstract:

Agricultural export trade plays a crucial role in establishing China as an agricultural powerful country. Understanding the temporal and spatial evolution of China's agricultural export trade, as well as regional differences, is essential for comprehending its development patterns and optimizing trade layouts and improving China's international agricultural competitiveness and achieving agricultural powerful country. Taking the agricultural export trade of 31 Chinese provinces ( cities, autonomous regions, excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan Province), this study used the spatial autocorrelation models and the Theil index to analyze the the temporal and spatial changes in provincial agricultural export trade from 2002 to 2022, as well as regional differences. The results were showed as follows. (1) Agricultural export trade in China, on the whole, exhibited a fluctuating upward trend. The growth rate of export trade in Northeast China since 2010 was notably lower than that of the central and western regions. It was evident that many provinces in the central and western regions showed remarkable development potential. (2) Spatially, China's provincial agricultural export trade displayed pronounced "high－high" and "low－low" agglomeration characteristics. Compared to 2002, there were notable changes in the certain provinces' export performance in 2022, resulting in their transition towards "low－low, low－high" agglomeration. (3) The overall agricultural export trade and intra-regional differences across the four regions experienced expansion. The western region exhibited the largest intra-regional differences, following an "M" fluctuation trend. Furthermore, inter-regional disparities dominated the overall differences but were converging gradually. In summary, it is proposed to continuous promotion of comprehensive openness and targeted policy support at the national level. Additionally, at the regional level, it is recommended to formulate development policies tailored to local conditions and resource endowments, so as to foster balanced development and advancement in China's agricultural export trade.