河北省农业现代化发展水平、区域差异及障碍因素分析

ANALYSIS ON THE DEVELOPMENT LEVEL, REGIONAL DIFFERENCE AND OBSTACLE FACTORS OF AGRICULTURAL MODERNIZATION IN HEBEI PROVINCE

关键词:  农业现代化  区域差异  障碍度模型  熵权法

Key words:  agricultural modernization  regional difference  obstacle degree model  entropy weight method

摘要:

目的 基于乡村振兴和“十四五”规划对于农业现代化的有关要求，构建河北省农业现代化综合评价指标体系，对河北省农业现代化发展水平时空差异及障碍因素进行测度及评价。方法 文章依据现有发展成果，综合运用熵权法和K-means均值聚类分析法，从综合生产能力、产业经营能力、优质高效能力3个维度选取15个代表性指标构建农业现代化指标体系，找出影响河北省农业现代化发展的主要因素，并对2015—2020年河北省农业现代化水平进行测度分析。结果 （1）2015—2020年河北省农业现代化发展水平综合得分由0.133增长到0.784，发展趋势十分迅速；（2）就区域发展而言，通过K-means均值聚类分析出，区域之间发展不均衡，冀中地区发展水平高；（3）从障碍因素来看，影响因素各不相同，影响河北省的主要因素农业生产水平和农业产业结构，其次是农业可持续发展水平、农业产业化水平、农业生产效率、农业科技发展水平的影响。结论 基于研究结果提出强化粮食生产、调整农业产业结构、提高技术装备、以第三方物流为依托，保障全产业链对接等建议，以更好地提高农业现代化水平，向农业强省迈进。

Abstract:

According to the requirements of rural revitalization and the 14th five-year plan for agricultural modernization, this paper measures and evaluates the spatial and temporal difference and obstacle factors of agricultural modernization development level in Hebei province. Based on the present development, this research selected 15 representative indicators from three dimensions of comprehensive production capacity, industrial management capacity, high-quality and high-efficiency capacity, and constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system of agricultural modernization in Hebei province, then used the entropy weight method and K-means clustering analysis method to find out the main factors that affected the development of agricultural modernization in Hebei province, and measured and analyzed the level of agricultural modernization in Hebei province from 2015 to 2020. The results were showed as follows. (1) The comprehensive score of agricultural modernization development level in Hebei province increased from 0.133 to 0.784 from 2015 to 2020, and the development trend was very rapid. (2) In terms of regional development, K-means clustering analysis showed that there was uneven development among regions, and the development level in the central Hebei region was high. (3) From the perspective of barrier factors, the influencing factors of agricultural modernization development level in Hebei province were different from each other, and the main factors were the agricultural production level and the agricultural industrial structure, followed by the agricultural sustainable development level, the agricultural industrialization level, the agricultural production efficiency, the agricultural science and technology development level. Therefore, based on the research results, some suggestions are put forward, such as strengthening grain production, adjusting agricultural industrial structure, improving technology and equipment, relying on the third party logistics, ensuring the linkage of the whole industry, etc., so as to better improve the level of agricultural modernization and become a strong agricultural province.