新型城镇化能否提高农业全要素生产率——基于地级市面板数据的分析

CAN NEW URBANIZATION IMPROVE AGRICULTURAL TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY——ANALYSIS BASED ON PREFECTURAL-LEVEL CITY PANLE DATA

关键词:  新型城镇化  农业全要素生产率  熵权TOPSIS  动态面板平滑转移模型  非线性关系

Key words:  new urbanization  agricultural total factor productivity  entropy weight TOPSIS  dynamic panel smooth transfer model  non-linear relationship

摘要:

目的 农业全要素生产率提高是推动乡村振兴的关键因素之一，新型城镇化与农业全要素生产率之间具有内在的逻辑关系，对新型城镇化与农业全要素生产率之间的关系进行探究具有重要意义。方法 文章从经济基础、社会功能、生态环境和城乡融合等4个维度构建新型城镇化综合指标体系，基于2001—2021年的数据采用熵权TOPSIS方法对我国285个地级市的新型城镇化发展水平进行测度，采用DEA-Malmquist指数测算农业全要素生产率，构建动态面板平滑转移模型研究新型城镇化对农业全要素生产率的影响。结果 （1）样本期间，从总体来看，我国的新型城镇化和农业全要素生产率均呈增长趋势。（2）新型城镇化对农业全要素生产率的影响存在显著的非线性关系，当农村居民人均可支配收入低于门槛值时，新型城镇化会对农业全要素生产率产生显著的推动作用；而当农村居民人均可支配收入高于门槛值时，新型城镇化会对农业全要素生产率产生显著的阻碍作用。（3）新型城镇化对不同地区、不同城市规模以及不同粮食功能区农业全要素生产率的影响均存在显著的异质性。结论 新型城镇化会对农业全要素生产率产生显著影响，要想在推动城镇化的同时实现农业全要素生产率提升，必须从提高农业现代化水平、农业生产效率以及农业扶持力度等多个方面同时入手。

Abstract:

The improvement of agricultural total factor productivity is one of the key factors to promote rural revitalization, there is an inherent logical relationship between new urbanization and agricultural total factor productivity, it is of great significance to explore the relationship between new urbanization and agricultural total factor productivity. This paper constructed a comprehensive indicator system of new urbanization from the four dimensions of economic basis, social function, ecological environment and urban-rural integration. Based on the data from 2001 to 2021, it measured the development level of new urbanization in 285 prefecture-level cities in China by using the entropy weight TOPSIS method, calculated agricultural total factor productivity by adopting the DEA-Malmquist index, and constructed a dynamic panel smooth transfer model to study the impact of new urbanization on the agricultural total factor productivity. The results were indicated as follows. (1) In the sample period, in general, China's new urbanization and agricultural total factor productivity showed an increasing trend. (2) There was a significant nonlinear relationship between the impact of new urbanization on the agricultural total factor productivity, when the per capita disposable income of rural residents was lower than the threshold value, the new urbanization would have a significant positive impact on the agricultural total factor productivity; when the per capita disposable income of rural residents was higher than the threshold value, the new urbanization would have a significant negative impact on the agricultural total factor productivity. (3) The impact of new urbanization on the agricultural total factor productivity in different regions, different city sizes and different food function areas were significantly heterogeneous. In summary, the new urbanization has a significant impact on the agricultural total factor productivity, if we want to achieve the improvement of agricultural total factor productivity while promoting urbanization, we must simultaneously improve the level of agricultural modernization, agricultural production efficiency and the strength of agricultural support.