农民工转移就业对农村居民收入的影响及其空间溢出效应

THE IMPACT OF MIGRANT WORKERS' TRANSFER OF EMPLOYMENT ON RURAL RESIDENTS' INCOME AND ITS SPATIAL SPILLOVER EFFECT

关键词:  农民工转移就业  农村居民收入  空间权重矩阵  空间杜宾模型  溢出效应

Key words:  transfer of employment for migrant workers  income of rural residents  spatial weight matrix  Spatial Durbin model  overflow effect

摘要:

目的 农民工作为农村人口的重要组成部分，其转移就业问题一直被各界高度关注。文章利用2011—2021我国31个省（市、区，未含香港、澳门和台湾省）的空间面板数据，探究农民工转移就业对农村居民收入的影响及其空间溢出效应。方法 结合前人研究成果和理论基础，分析农民工转移就业对农村居民收入的影响机制，通过莫兰检验验证农民工转移就业和农村居民收入空间相关性之后，再选取固定效应空间杜宾模型进行实证分析，并通过3种空间矩阵检验结果的稳健性。结果 （1） 发现农民工转移就业和农村居民收入具有明显的L—L、H—H集聚的空间特征，空间相关性显著；（2） 农民工转移就业与农村居民收入空间交互效应也显著；农民工转移就业对农村居民收入有显著的正向影响；（3） 农民工转移就业对农村居民收入具有显著的空间溢出效应。结论 重视农民工转移就业的空间溢出效应，进一步提高农民工受教育程度，加快农民工市民化进程，可促进农民工转移就业，进而有效提升农村居民收入水平。

Abstract:

In the realm of agricultural and rural development, farmers constitute an essential component, aligning with the regulatory framework governing rural and agricultural progress. Meanwhile, the phenomenon of migrant workers' relocation and employment remains a subject of profound interest across diverse sectors. Based on the spatial panel data encompassing 31 provinces (including cities and autonomous regions, excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and Tibet, region) in mainland China from 2011 to 2021, this research investigates the influence of migrant workers' employment relocation on the income of rural residents, along with its associated spatial spillover effects. Drawing upon the prior research findings and theoretical underpinnings, this study analyzed the impact mechanism of migrant worker transfer employment on rural resident's income, verified the spatial correlation between migrant worker transfer employment and rural residents' income through Moran's test, and made an empirical analysis by a fixed effects spatial Durbin model, then tested the robustness of the results through three spatial matrices. The results were listed as follows. (1) There was a pronounced spatial clustering pattern characterized by 'Low-Low' (L-L) and 'High-High' (H-H) clusters in both migrant worker employment relocation and rural residents' income, signifying significant spatial correlation. (2) Furthermore, the study also identified a substantial spatial spillover effect between migrant worker employment relocation and rural residents' income. Notably, the transfer of employment among migrant workers exerted a discernible positive impact on rural residents' income. (3) The employment relocation among migrant workers generated a noteworthy spatial spillover effect on rural residents' income. In summary, this research underscores the importance of addressing the spatial spillover effects associated with the transfer of employment among migrant workers, and it emphasizes the need for enhancing their educational attainment and expediting the urbanization process for migrant workers, as these measures can foster employment relocation and, in turn, bolster the income of rural residents.