“双碳”目标下的小麦化肥碳减排潜力研究

CARBON EMISSION REDUCTION POTENTIAL OF WHEAT CHEMICAL FERTILIZER UNDER THE TARGET OF CARBON PEAKING AND CARBON NEUTRALITY

关键词:  化肥  小麦  碳排放  随机前沿函数  测土配方施肥

Key words:  chemical fertilizer  wheat  carbon emission  SFA  soil testing and fertilizer recommendation

摘要:

目的 不合理的化肥施用不仅破坏了农业生态环境，还产生大量碳排放。削减化肥过度施用产生的碳排放对实现“双碳”目标具有重要现实意义。通过测算小麦化肥碳减排潜力并总结其时空分异规律，可以为削减化肥碳排放提供依据。方法 文章基于2004—2020年10个小麦主产地面板数据，使用随机前沿生产函数测算小麦化肥投入效率以及化肥可削减比例作为化肥碳减排依据，并使用基尼系数、Kernel核密度估计方法、Markov链分析方法分析与总结小麦化肥碳减排潜力的时空演变规律特征。结果 10个主产区小麦化肥平均碳减排潜力达到251.10 kg CE/hm²，其中西部地区碳减排潜力最高，总体碳减排潜力空间分布不均衡，分布差距扩大并且差距主要来自地区间差距，碳减排潜力虽然呈现下降趋势但在空间分布上仍较稳定。结论 为促进小麦绿色生产，需要明确西部地区为小麦化肥碳减排重点地区、重视小麦低碳生产中存在的区域发展不协调的问题、发挥测土配方施肥对促进化肥碳减排的作用、利用多个要素替代措施推动化肥碳减排。

Abstract:

Irrational application of chemical fertilizer not only destroys the agricultural ecological environment, but also generates a lot of carbon emission. It is of great practical significance to reduce carbon emissions from over-application of chemical fertilizer to achieve "carbon peaking" and "carbon neutrality". Measuring the chemical fertilizer carbon reduction potential of wheat and summarising their spatial and temporal variability can provide a basis for reducing carbon emissions from chemical fertilizer. Therefore, based on the data of 10 major wheat producing regions from 2004 to 2020, this study used the stochastic frontier production function to estimate the input efficiency of wheat chemical fertilizer and the proportion of chemical fertilizer that could be reduced as the basis for chemical fertilizer carbon reduction. The Gini coefficient, Kernel density estimation method and Markov chain analysis method were used to analyze and summarize the spatio-temporal evolution of carbon emission reduction potential of wheat chemical fertilizer. The results showed that the average carbon emission reduction potential of wheat chemical fertilizer in 10 major producing regions reached 251.1kg CE/hm², with the highest carbon emission reduction potential in the western region. The spatial distribution of the overall carbon emission reduction potential was unbalanced, and the distribution gap was gradually widening and the main reason for the widening came from the inter-regional disparity. Although the carbon reduction potential showed a downward trend, the spatial distribution was still relatively stable. Therefore, in order to promote the green production of wheat, it is necessary to identify the western region as the key region for chemical fertilizer carbon reduction of wheat, pay attention to the problem of regional development incoordination in wheat low-carbon production, increase the contribution of soil testing and fertilizer recommendation in promoting chemical fertilizer carbon reduction, and use multiple factor alternative measures to promote chemical fertilizer carbon reduction.