长江经济带乡村生态韧性测度及影响因素研究

RESEARCH ON THE MEASUREMENT AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF RURAL ECOLOGICAL RESILIENCE IN THE YANGTZE RIVER ECONOMIC BELT

关键词:  乡村生态韧性  生态足迹模型  泰尔指数  核密度估计  标准偏差椭圆

Key words:  rural ecological resilience  ecological footprint model  Theil index  kernel density estimation  Standard deviation ellipse

摘要:

目的 测度和评价长江经济带的乡村生态韧性，实证检验其影响因素，为维持全流域乡村地域系统稳定性和可持续性、全面推进乡村振兴提供科学依据。方法 文章采用生态足迹模型、泰尔指数、核密度估计等方法对2010—2019年长江经济带11个省市的乡村生态韧性进行测度和评价，运用PCSE、FGLS方法实证检验了长江经济带乡村生态韧性的影响因素。结果 （1）在时序演变上，长江经济带的乡村生态韧性有所下降，乡村生态韧性均值从2010年的0.215下降到2019年的0.200；（2）在区域分异特征上，长江经济带乡村生态韧性并未出现明显极化现象，但各地区乡村生态韧性总体差距呈现出扩大趋势，且上游、中游和下游不同流域段之间的差距是导致全流域各地区乡村生态韧性差异的主要原因；（3）在空间格局上，全流域呈现出上游、中游、下游梯度下降态势，且空间演进呈现“东北—西南”格局，总体上空间布局的演变较小；（4）影响因素发现，农村信息化、财政支农与长江经济带的乡村生态韧性呈正相关关系，而农村经济增长、农村人力资本、城镇化发展与乡村生态韧性呈负相关。结论 建议以推进乡村经济多元化、生态化发展，构建合理的留才引才机制，深化数字乡村建设，推进绿色城镇化，构建城乡环境共同体，健全以绿色生态为导向的财政支农政策体系以提高长江经济带乡村生态韧性。

Abstract:

To measure and evaluate the rural ecological resilience of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, empirically test its influencing factors, and provide scientific basis for maintaining the stability and sustainability of the rural regional system in the entire basin and comprehensively promoting rural revitalization. The ecological footprint model, Thiel index, and kernel density estimation were used to measure and evaluate the rural ecological resilience of 11 provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2010 to 2019, and the PCSE and FGLS methods were used to empirically test the influencing factors of rural ecological resilience in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The results were listed as follows. (1) In terms of temporal evolution, the rural ecological resilience of the Yangtze River Economic Belt decreased, with the mean value of rural ecological resilience decreasing from 0.215 in 2010 to 0.200 in 2019; (2) In terms of regional divergence characteristics, the rural ecological resilience of the Yangtze River Economic Belt did not show obvious polarization, but the overall gap in rural ecological resilience among regions showed a tendency to widen, and the gap between different river basins in the upstream, midstream, and downstream was the main reason for the differences in rural ecological resilience in different regions of the entire basin; (3) In terms of the spatial pattern, the basin showed a decreasing gradient of upstream, midstream and downstream, and the spatial evolution showed a "northeast-southwest" pattern, and the overall spatial layout evolved less; (4) From the influencing factors, it was found that rural informatization, financial support to agriculture and rural ecological resilience in the Yangtze River Economic Belt were positively correlated, while rural economic growth, rural human capital, urbanization development and rural ecological resilience were negatively correlated. In summary, it is recommended to promote the diversified and ecological development of rural economy, build a reasonable mechanism to retain and attract talents, deepen the construction of digital countryside, promote green urbanization, build an urban-rural environmental community, and improve the green and ecological-oriented financial support policy system for agriculture to improve the ecological resilience of rural areas in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.