基于县域尺度的江苏农业多功能权衡与协同时空特征

SPATIAL-TEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS OF AGRICULTURAL MUTI-FUNCTION TRADEOFF AND SYNERGISTIC AT THE COUNTY SCALE IN JIANGSU

关键词:  农业多功能  权衡  协同  时空特征  县域尺度  江苏省

Key words:  agricultural multifunction  tradeoff  synergistic  spatial-temporal characteristics  county scale  Jiangsu province

摘要:

目的 深入系统揭示江苏县域农业多功能权衡/协同时空关系，是统筹不同农业功能特征地域协调发展的关键。方法 文章在解读农业多功能内涵基础上，从“粮食生产—经济发展—社会保障—生态涵养”4个维度构建评价指标体系，综合运用熵值法、ESDA模型及Spearman相关系数等方法分析1978年以来江苏农业多功能时空分异及权衡/协同关系。结果 （1）1978—2019年县域尺度江苏农业粮食生产功能空间格局呈现“北移”态势，经济发展、社会保障功能高值集聚在苏南，而生态涵养功能空间上表现“依山傍水”分布格局。（2）粮食生产功能与经济发展、社会保障功能呈现“先协同后权衡”变化趋势，与生态涵养功能表现出较强的权衡关系；经济发展功能与社会保障功能呈现协同关系，而与生态涵养功能表现出较强权衡关系。（3）县域尺度粮食生产—经济发展功能协同HH型从苏锡常逐渐向苏北演化；苏南地区粮食生产—社会保障功能由协同HH型演化为权衡LH型；粮食生产—生态涵养功能协同HH型主要集聚在连宿地区；经济发展—社会保障功能协同HH型主要集聚在苏南县域；经济发展—生态涵养功能协同HH型主要分布在宁镇扬及苏北部分县域。结论 结合不同农业地域功能权衡/协同特征，凸显不同农业地域主导优势功能，提出乡村振兴背景下江苏农业地域功能优化的差异化路径。

Abstract:

To systematically reveal the spatiotemporal relationship between the multifunctional balance/synergy of agriculture in Jiangsu counties is the key to coordinating the regional coordinated development of different agricultural functional characteristics. Based on the interpretation of the connotation of agricultural multifunction, an evaluation index system was constructed from four dimensions of "food production-economic development-social security-ecological conservation". Taking Jiangsu province, a rapidly urbanization area, as a typical case, and based on the county scale, we comprehensively analyzed the spatial and temporal differentiation and synergistic/tradeoff relationship of agricultural multifunction in Jiangsu province since 1978 by using entropy weight method, spatial autocorrelation and Spearman correlation coefficient. The results showed that: (1) From 1978 to 2019, the spatial pattern of agricultural grain production functions in Jiangsu at the county scale showed a trend of "northward shift", with high value of economic development and social security function concentrated in southern Jiangsu, while the spatial pattern of ecological conservation showed a "mountain and water" distribution pattern. (2) During the study period, the function of food production, economic development and social security showed a trend of "synergistic first and then tradeoff", and showed a strong tradeoff relationship with the function of ecological conservation. There was a synergistic relationship between economic development function and social security function, but a strong tradeoff relationship between economic development function and ecological conservation function. (3) The synergistic High-High type of grain production-economic development function at county scale gradually evolved from Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou to northern Jiangsu. The grain production-social security function in southern Jiangsu province changed from synergistic High-High type to tradeoff Low-High type. The synergistic High-High type of grain production-ecological conservation mainly concentrated in Lianyungang-Suzhou area. The High-High type of economic development-social security mainly concentrated in south Jiangsu. The synergistic High-Higj type of economic development and ecological conservation was mainly distributed in Nanjing-Zhenjiang-Yangzhou and some counties in northern Jiangsu province. In the future, we should combine the current situation, resource characteristics and regional background of different agricultural regions, highlight the dominant functions of different agricultural regions, and adopt differentiated optimization strategies of agricultural regional functions in Jiangsu according to local conditions.