基于DSSAT模型的东北地区大豆高产稳产区研究

STUDY ON HIGH AND STABLE YIELD AREAS OF SOYBEAN IN NORTHEAST CHINA BASED ON DSSAT MODEL

关键词:  大豆  高产稳产区  东北地区  DSSAT模型  资源限制

Key words:  soybean  high and stable yield areas  Northeast China  decision support system for agrotechnology transfer model (DSSAT)  resource limitation

摘要:

目的 东北地区作为中国大豆主产区，大豆年平均播种面积及产量均占全国50%以上，明确其高产稳产区分布特征，对合理布局大豆种植区域有重要意义。方法 文章利用1991—2020年研究区域内99个气象站点的逐日气象数据和土壤数据，基于参数校准并验证后的DSSAT-CROPGRO-Soybean模型，对不同产量潜力下的大豆产量进行模拟，以产量平均值和产量变异系数作为高产性和稳产性的划分指标，将研究区域划分为高产高稳、高产低稳、低产高稳和低产低稳4个亚区，在此基础上探讨降水和土壤条件对大豆高产性和稳产性的影响。结果 （1）3种产量潜力下大豆产量均呈现西低东高的分布趋势，光温产量潜力下东北地区大豆平均产量最高，气候产量潜力次之，气候—土壤产量潜力最低。随着限制因素的增加，大豆平均产量逐渐下降；（2）大豆高产区和高稳区占总研究区域的耕地面积比例逐渐降低，低产区和低稳区的耕地面积比例逐渐增加；（3）大豆高产高稳区耕地面积比例逐渐降低，光温产量潜力下最高，占研究区域耕地面积的62%，气候—土壤产量潜力下最低，占41%；降水对于大豆高产性和稳产性的限制要远大于土壤。结论 高产高稳区是最适宜种植大豆的区域，而高产低稳区是潜在的高产高稳区，采取一定措施可以提高产量潜力的稳定性。基于DSSAT模型对东北地区大豆高产稳产区分布特征进行研究，可以合理布局种植区域，提升东北地区大豆产量。

Abstract:

As the main soybean producing area in China, the average annual sown area and yield of soybeans in Northeast China account for more than 50% of the country. It is of great significance to define the distribution characteristics of high and stable yield areas for the rational layout of soybean planting areas. Daily meteorological data and soil data from 99 meteorological stations in the study area from 1991 to 2020 were used to simulate soybean yield with different yield potentials based on the DSSAT-CROPGRO-Soybean model after parameter calibration and verification. The average yield and yield variation coefficient were used to divide high yield and stable yield. The study area was divided into four subareas: high yield and high stability, high yield and low stability, low yield and high stability and low yield and low stability. On this basis, the effects of precipitation and soil conditions on high yield and stable yield of soybean were discussed. The results were indicated as follows. (1) The distribution trend of soybean yield under the three yield potentials was low in the west and high in the east. The average soybean yield in Northeast China was the highest under the photon-temperature yield potential, followed by the climatic yield potential, and the climate-soil yield potential was the lowest. With the increase of limiting factors, the average yield of soybean decreased gradually. (2) The proportion of cultivated land area in soybean high producing area and high stable area decreased gradually, while that in low producing area and low stable area increased gradually. (3) The proportion of cultivated land area in the high-yield and high-stability area of soybean decreased gradually. The proportion of cultivated land area in the light-temperature yield potential was the highest, accounting for 62% of the study area, and the proportion of cultivated land area in the climate-soil yield potential was the lowest, accounting for 41%. The limit of precipitation on high yield and stable yield of soybean was much greater than that of soil. In summary, high yield and high stability area is the most suitable area for soybean planting, while high yield and low stability area is the potential high yield and high stability area. Taking some measures can improve the stability of yield potential. Based on decision support system for agrotechnology transfer model (DSSAT), the distribution characteristics of high and stable yield area of soybean in Northeast China are studied, which can rationally arrange planting area and expand planting area, and provide scientific and reasonable basis for improving soybean yield in Northeast China.