吉林省畜禽养殖环境承载力水平、协调性及趋势分析

ANALYSIS OF THE LEVEL, COORDINATION AND TREND OF THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF LIVESTOCK AND POUTRY BREEDING IN JILIN PROVINCE

关键词:  畜禽养殖  环境承载力  综合评价  协调性  预测

Key words:  livestock and poultry breeding  environmental carrying capacity  comprehensive evaluation  coordination  prediction

摘要:

目的 文章以吉林省为研究区域，对畜禽养殖环境承载力水平、协调性与趋势做出综合评价与分析。方法 从畜禽养殖、资源供给、生态环境和社会发展4个维度构建畜禽养殖环境承载力评价指标体系，基于2014—2021年吉林省统计数据，分别采用熵值法和耦合协调模型评估畜禽养殖环境承载力水平及各子系统协调程度，并使用灰色预测模型分析2022—2026年畜禽养殖环境承载力发展趋势。结果 （1）2014—2021年吉林省畜禽养殖环境承载力大幅增长（0.239 0～0.742 3）。其中，畜禽养殖系统持续上升，资源供给系统在较低水平波动，生态环境系统逐步改善，社会发展系统先升后降；（2）4个子系统的耦合协调度持续上涨，逐步接近协调发展水平（0.225 2～0.418 1）；（3）2022—2026年承载力保持稳定的同时缓慢下降（0.774 0～0.718 9）。综上，吉林省畜禽养殖环境承载力目前处于稳定阶段，并呈现下降趋势。结论 应通过优化主体结构、培育绿色生产模式、加强自然资源保护与利用和发挥政府引导和市场调节作用等措施，促进吉林省畜禽养殖可持续发展。

Abstract:

By taking Jilin province as the research area, this paper comprehensively evaluated and analyzed the level, coordination and trend of the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding. An environmental carrying capacity evaluation index system of livestock and poultry breeding was established from four dimensions of livestock and poultry breeding, resource supply, ecological environment and social development. Based on the statistical data of Jilin province from 2014 to 2021, the entropy method and comprehensive evaluation model were used to calculate the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding in Jilin province, and the GM prediction model was constructed to predict the future trend from 2022 to 2026.The results were listed as follows. (1) The environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding in Jilin province from 2014 to 2021 increased substantially (from 0.239 0 to 0.742 3), among which, the livestock and poultry breeding system continued to increase, the resource supply system fluctuated at a lower level, the ecological environment system improved significantly, and the social development system increased first and then decreased. (2) The coupling coordination degree of the four subsystems continued to rise, approaching coordinated development level (from 0.225 2 to 0.418 1). (3) From 2022 to 2026, the carrying capacity remained stable while slowly declining. As such, the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding in Jilin province was currently in a stable stage and showed a downward trend. Therefore, the sustainable development of animal husbandry in Jilin province can be promoted by optimizing structure of producers, fostering green production mode, strengthening protection and utilization of natural resources, and playing roles of government guidance and market regulation.