“价补分离”政策对玉米全要素生产率的影响及其省际差异

THE IMPACT OF THE "PRICE-SUBSIDY SEPARATION" POLICY ON MAIZE TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY AND ITS INTER-PROVINCIAL DIFFERENCES

关键词:  “价补分离”政策  玉米全要素生产率  合成控制法  省际差异  作用机制

Key words:  "price-subsidy separation" policy  corn total factor productivity  synthetic control method  interprovincial difference  impact mechanism

摘要:

目的 评估“价补分离”政策对玉米全要素生产率的影响，探究其省际差异与作用机制，对完善“价补分离”政策、促进玉米产业高质量发展和保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。方法 文章基于2008—2021年20个玉米主产省（区）面板数据，使用DEA-Malmquist指数法测出玉米全要素生产率指数，并采用合成控制法，从东北三省一区整体和分省两个层面对“价补分离”政策效果进行评估。结果 （1）整体上看，“价补分离”政策对玉米全要素生产率表现出积极促进作用，尽管第一年影响并不显著，但在随后5年中，政策的促进作用显著。（2）分省看，“价补分离”政策对玉米全要素生产率的促进作用存在显著的地区差异，对内蒙古和吉林玉米全要素生产率的促进作用长期显著，而对黑龙江和辽宁的促进作用呈现波动。（3）影响机制看，“价补分离”政策主要通过资源配置效应、财富效应和成本效应发挥对玉米全要素生产率的促进作用。结论 “价补分离”政策能够提升玉米全要素生产率，但存在省际异质性。未来，政府应稳步推进粮食领域市场化改革，促进生产要素合理配置，还应提高机械化水平以降低玉米生产成本，并加强农田水利设施来提升农业抵御自然灾害的能力。

Abstract:

This research evaluates the impact of the "price-subsidy separation" policy on corn total factor productivity, explores its inter-provincial differences and mechanisms, which is of great significance for improving the "price-subsidy separation" policy, promoting the high-quality development of the corn industry and guaranteeing national food security. Based on the panel data of 20 major corn producing provinces from 2008 to 2021, the corn total factor productivity index was calculated by using the DEA-Malmquist index method, and the policy effect was evaluated from the overall and provincial levels by synthetic control method. The results were indicated as follows. (1) On the whole, the "price-subsidy separation" policy showed a significant effect on the growth of corn total factor productivity, although the effect was not significant in the first year, the policy's promotion effect was significant in the following five years;. (2) From the prospective of provinces, there were significant regional differences in the promotion effect of the "price-subsidy separation" policy on the corn total factor productivity, with the promotion effect in Inner Mongolia and Jilin being consistently significant in the long term, while fluctuating in Heilongjiang and Liaoning fluctuates. (3) In terms of the impact mechanism, the "price-subsidy separation" policy mainly promoted the corn total factor productivity through resource allocation effect, wealth effect and cost effect. Therefore, this study draws conclusion that the "price-subsidy separation" policy can improve corn total factor productivity, but there is inter-provincial heterogeneity. In the future, government should steadily promote market-oriented reform in the food field, improve the rational allocation of production factors, improve mechanization to reduce corn production costs and strengthen the construction of farmland water conservancy facilities to enhance agriculture industry's resilience to natural disasters.