山东省县域乡村收缩时空格局及其影响因素

THE SPATIOTEMPORAL PATTERN AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF SHANDONG PROVINCE COUNTY RURAL SHRINKAGE

关键词:  乡村收缩  时空格局演变  影响因素  MGWR  山东省县域

Key words:  rural shrinkage  spatiotemporal pattern evolution  influencing factors  MGWR  counties in Shandong province

摘要:

目的 研究2000年以来山东省县域乡村收缩的时空格局及其影响因素的空间分异，可以丰富我国乡村收缩的研究内容，并为山东省推进新型城镇化和乡村振兴协同发展提供科学依据。方法 文章基于第五、六和七次全国人口普查数据研究2000—2010年与2010—2020年两个时期山东省90个县域乡村收缩的时空格局演变，利用“自然—社会经济—政策”数据通过多尺度地理加权回归模型（Multi-scale Geographically Weighted Regression，MGWR）剖析乡村收缩主导因素的空间异质性。结果 （1）2000—2020年山东省县域乡村人口收缩总体表现为中度收缩，且呈收缩加剧趋势，中度收缩县域广泛分布在山东省各地区，塌陷和重度收缩县域从鲁南、鲁西北转移和扩散到除鲁南以外的其他地区，轻度收缩县域从“胶东半岛”向“鲁西北和鲁南地区”转移。（2）山东省县域乡村收缩演变类型以加速收缩型与持续收缩型为主，胶东半岛地区乡村收缩形势最为严峻，其次是鲁中和鲁西南地区。（3）两个时期乡村收缩的影响因素不尽相同，并呈现不同程度的空间分异特征。城镇化水平对两个时期的乡村收缩均产生重要影响，但其负向作用程度在逐渐减弱；地区经济发展水平、地形起伏情况和医疗服务水平影响前一时期乡村收缩，其影响由西向东递减；地方财政状况、教育服务水平、村庄人口中心度和区位条件正向影响后一时期乡村收缩，地方财政状况和村庄人口中心度的影响分别呈现由南向北向东和由东南向西北递减趋势，教育服务水平和区位条件的影响由中部向两侧递减。结论 山东省县域乡村人口已进入全面收缩阶段，乡村收缩的时空分异特征明显，社会经济和政策因素对乡村收缩的影响大于自然因素，且社会和政策因素的影响日趋明显，自然因素影响日趋减弱，现状乡村收缩格局是上述因素综合作用的结果。

Abstract:

This research aims to study the spatial and temporal pattern of rural population shrinkage of Shandong province since 2000 and the spatial differentiation of its influencing factors, so as to enrich the research content of rural shrinkage in China and provide a basis for Shandong province to promote the coordinated development of new urbanization and rural revitalization. Based on the data from the latest three decennial censuses, this research analyzed the spatial-temporal pattern evolution of 90 Shandong counties during 2000-2010 and 2010-2020 by using the data of "nature-socio-economic-policy". And then it dissected the spatial heterogeneity of the leading factors of rural shrinkage by applying multiscale geographically weighted regression model (MGWR). The results were indicated as follows. (1) From 2000 to 2020, the county population of Shandong province generally showed a moderate shrinkage, and the shrinkage trend intensified. The counties with moderate shrinkage were widely distributed. The severe shrinkage counties transferred from appearing in South and Northwest Shandong to other areas except South Shandong, and the mild shrinkage counties shifted from the Jiaodong Peninsula to being present in Northwest and South Shandong. (2) The characteristics of rural shrinkage in Shandong province were mainly accelerated shrinkage and continuous shrinkage. The rural shrinkage in the Jiaodong Peninsula was the most severe, followed by central Shandong and Southwestern Shandong. (3) The influencing factors of rural shrinkage varied across different research cycles, showing different spatial differentiation. Urbanization had a crucial impact on rural shrinkage in the two research cycles, but its negative effect was gradually weakening; The regional economic development, topographical fluctuations, and medical service factors affected the rural shrinkage in the previous research cycle, and their influence decreased from west to east; Local financial status, educational service, village population centrality, and location conditions positively affected the rural shrinkage in the later research cycle, and the influence of local financial status and village population centrality presented a decreasing trend from south to north and from southeast to northwest, respectively. The influence of educational service and location conditions decreased from the middle to both sides. In summary, the county population in Shandong province enters a stage of overall shrinkage, and the spatial and temporal characteristics of rural shrinkage are obvious. The influence of social economic and policy factors on rural shrinkage is greater than that of natural factors, and the influence of social and policy factors is becoming significant. The current rural shrinkage pattern is the result of the combined effects of the above factors.