| 摘要: |
| 目的 为紧抓《区域全面经济伙伴关系》（Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership， RCEP）政策红利，提高新疆农产品出口RCEP伙伴国贸易效率，拓展出口贸易前景。方法 文章选取2002—2021年新疆农产品出口RCEP伙伴国的贸易数据，基于自由贸易协定（Free Trade Agreement，FTA）文本深度视角运用随机前沿引力模型对新疆农产品出口RCEP伙伴国的贸易效率及贸易前景进行实证分析。结果 新疆农产品出口RCEP伙伴国整体贸易效率不足，FTA农业深度指数对出口效率的提升作用最大。从国家层面看，RCEP的实施生效在短期内将导致新疆农产品出口日本受阻，但能大幅度提升对东盟的出口效率。从产品层面看，RCEP对拓展新疆食品饮料的出口贸易前景表现最好，成为新疆出口额增长额最大的农产品类别，植物产品次之，动物产品的变化额最小。结论 基于此，提出新疆应基于“一带一路”核心区建设优势，结合RCEP各项涉农条款，制定差异化农产品出口策略，提高出口产品的市场竞争力。 |
| 关键词: FTA文本 RCEP 农产品 贸易前景 中国新疆 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20240720 |
| 分类号:F746 |
| 基金项目:2023年新疆农业大学研究生科研创新项目“中国新疆农产品出口RCEP国家的贸易潜力研究”（XJAUGRI2023027）；新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目“基于口岸经济带促进新疆门户经济高质量发展的路径”（2022D01A170）；新疆维吾尔自治区教育厅重点项目“基于口岸经济带构建新疆外向型农业全产业链体系研究”（XJEDU2021S1008） |
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| EFFICIENCY AND TRADE PROSPECTS OF XINJIANG AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS TO RCEP PARTNER COUNTRIES*——A STUDY FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF FTA TEXT ANALYSIS |
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Xiao Yuting1,2, Abudukeremu Abudureyimu1,2, Buwajian Abula2
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1.College of Economics and Management, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, Xinjiang, China;2.Central Asia Research Center, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, Xinjiang, China
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| Abstract: |
| The aim of this study is to seize the policy dividends brought by Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), improve the trade efficiency of agricultural products exported from Xinjiang to RCEP partner countries, and expand the prospects for export trade. By selecting the trade data of Xinjiang's agricultural exports to RCEP partner countries from 2002 to 2021 as samples, the stochastic frontier gravity model was employed to empirically analyze the trade efficiency and trade prospects of Xinjiang's agricultural exports to RCEP partner countries under the backdrop of the RCEP agreement rules. The results indicated that the overall trade efficiency of Xinjiang's agricultural exports to RCEP partner countries was insufficient, and the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) agricultural depth index had the greatest impact on improving export efficiency. At the national level, the implementation of RCEP initially hindered Xinjiang's agricultural exports to Japan, but significantly enhanced export efficiency to ASEAN countries. At the product level, RCEP showed the best prospects for expanding Xinjiang's food and beverage exports, becoming the agricultural category with the largest increase in export value, followed by plant products, while the change in export value of animal products was the smallest. Based on these findings, it is proposed that Xinjiang should leverage its advantages in the core area of the Belt and Road Initiative, and combine various agricultural clauses of the RCEP to develop differentiated agricultural product export strategies, so as to enhance the market competitiveness of its export products. |
| Key words: Free Trade Agreement, FTA texts Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, RCEP agricultural products trade prospects Xinjiang, China |
