农业政策支持下近期（2016—2020）黑龙江省大豆面积恢复时空动态研究

SPATIAL-TEMPORAL DYNAMICS OF SOYBEAN AREA RECOVERY IN HEILONGJIANG PROVINCE IN RECENT YEARS (2016-2020) UNDER THE SUPPORT OF AGRICULTURAL POLICIES

关键词:  时空动态分析  大豆  种植结构  移动窗口  热点分析

Key words:  spatio-temporal dynamic analysis  soybeans  planting structure  moving window  hotspot analysis

摘要:

目的 黑龙江省是我国主粮产区，为了应对近年来大豆进口导致省内大豆种植锐减的影响，增强大豆自给率，在国家多项农业政策的支持下，省内发生了以大豆面积增加为主的种植结构变化。理清作物种植的空间格局和过程，可以为合理规划粮食生产、增强粮食安全提供重要的信息支撑。方法 文章为全面诊断种植结构变化的时空动态，基于遥感方法开展了黑龙江省主要粮食作物（大豆、玉米、水稻）2016年和2020年的空间分布制图。在此基础上，通过转移矩阵、热点分析和多尺度移动窗口算法，梳理了主要粮食作物种植面积的转变情况，识别了转变的热点区域，并评估了作物转换的格局和过程。结果 （1）2016年、2020年作物制图总体精度为89%、94%；（2）2016—2020年黑龙江省大豆种植面积由350 万hm²增加至430万hm²，增幅达23%，集中分布在松嫩平原东北部的大豆高产区域，表现为集中连片的玉米转换为大豆；（3）同时，全省范围内玉米、水稻的种植面积皆呈小幅下降趋势，且成无规律较为离散分布。结论 在相关政策影响下，黑龙江省大豆种植实现了一定程度的恢复，特别是省内大豆高产区域面积的增加，有力地促进了大豆自给率的提升，增强了粮食安全，实现了农业资源的合理配置并推动了农业可持续发展。

Abstract:

Heilongjiang province is the leading food production region in China. To cope with the impact of soybean imports in recent years leading to a sharp decline in soybean cultivation within the province, and to enhance soybean self-sufficiency, the change in cultivation structure driven by the increase in soybeans occurred in the province under the support of several national policies. And understanding the patterns and processes of crop structural changes can provide important information to support agricultural planning and enhance food security. To comprehensively diagnose the dynamic changes of planting structure, we first mapped the spatial distribution of main food crops (soybeans, corn and rice) in 2016 and 2020 of Heilongjiang province based on remote sensing. Secondly, we calculated the area planted by each crop and the transformation between crops by the transformation matrix, and spatially diagnosed the hot spots of the transformation. Then, we also evaluated the patterns and processes of crop conversion through a multi-dimensional moving window. The results were showed as follows. (1) The overall accuracy of crop mapping in 2016 and 2020 was 89% and 94%. (2) From 2016 to 2020, the soybean planting area in Heilongjiang province increased from 3.5 million hectares to 4.3 million hectares, an increase of 23%, concentrated in the soybean high-yield area in the northeast of the Songnen Plain, which was reflected in the conversion of concentrated continuous pieces of corn into soybeans; (3) The area of corn and rice showed a slight downward trend, and performed an irregular and more discrete distribution. In summary, under the influence of relevant policies, Heilongjiang soybean planting achieves a certain degree of recovery, and the soybean self-sufficiency rate is significantly improved, especially the increase in soybean planting in high-yielding soybean areas enhances feed security and food security, realizes the rational allocation of agricultural resources, and promotes sustainable agricultural development.