黄淮海平原粮食生产空间格局演化及其影响因素

EVOLUTION AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF THE SPATIAL PATTERN OF GRAIN PRODUCTION IN THE HUANG-HUAI-HAI PLAIN

关键词:  黄淮海平原  粮食生产  空间格局  粮食增产  对数平均迪氏分解模型（LMDI模型）

Key words:  Huang-Huai-Hai Plain  grain production  spatial pattern  grain production increase  Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index （LMDI）

摘要:

目的 精准把握黄淮海平原粮食生产空间格局演化特征及影响因素，优化黄淮海平原粮食生产格局。方法 文章采用对数平均迪氏分解模型（LMDI模型）对200—2021年黄淮海平原所涉及的7个省（市）粮食产量变化的影响因素进行分解对比，分析粮食总产量、粮食单产累积效应、粮食种植结构对粮食增产的影响。结果 （1）黄淮海地区粮食总产量整体呈上升趋势，粮食增产量空间格局由黄淮海西部地区转移到东部地区；（2）粮食增产因素主要是单产累积效应，2004—2016年黄淮海平原粮食产量稳步增长，粮食种植面积连续13年对粮食增产量产生正向影响，但影响效果呈减弱的趋势，2017年开始对粮食增产量产生负向影响；（3）从种植结构看，玉米播种面积效应、小麦单产效应对粮食增产影响效果明显。江苏、安徽省的稻谷增产从依赖播种面积转向单产提高；河南、山东省小麦生产能力强，小麦单产提升效果显著；玉米种植面积调减影响整体玉米产量，河南、山东、河北省受影响较大，但河北省玉米单产提升效果显著；豆类增产省份从安徽转移到单产高的河南省、种植面积增多的山东省；山东、江苏、安徽薯类产量受单产效应负向影响。结论 要完善粮食支持政策、提高育种水平、优化种植结构、做好防灾减灾，不断探讨新的粮食增产途径。

Abstract:

To accurately grasp the evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the spatial pattern of grain production in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, and optimize the grain production pattern in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model was used to decompose and compare the influencing factors of grain output change in the seven provinces (cities) involved in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 2003 to 2021, and the influences of grain total output, cumulative effect of grain yield per unit area and grain planting structure on grain yield increase were analyzed. The results were listed as follows. (1) The total grain yield in the Huang-Huai-Hai region showed a rising trend in general, and the spatial pattern of grain yield increase shifted from the western region to the eastern region; (2) The main factor of grain yield increase was the cumulative effect of yield per unit area. The grain output in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain increased steadily from 2004 to 2016, and the grain planting area had a positive impact on the grain yield increase for 13 consecutive years, but the effect showed a weakening trend, and starting from 2017, the grain output increase began to have a negative impact. (3) From the perspective of planting structure, maize sowing area effect and wheat yield effect had obvious effects on grain yield increase. The increase of rice yield in Jiangsu and Anhui provinces shifted from relying on sown area to increasing yield per unit area; Henan and Shandong province had strong wheat production capacity, and the improvement effect of wheat yield per unit area was remarkable. The reduction of corn planting area affected the overall corn yield, and Henan, Shandong and Hebei provinces were greatly affected, but Hebei province had a significant increase in corn yield per unit area; The provinces of increasing legume production were transferred from Anhui to Henan province with high yield per unit area and Shandong province with increasing planting area. The yield of potato in Shandong, Jiangsu and Anhui was negatively affected by the yield effect. Therefore, it is necessary to improve grain support policies, raise the level of breeding, optimize planting structure, do disaster prevention and mitigation, and continuously explore new ways to increase grain yield.