农业保险保障对粮食生产韧性的影响研究

THE IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE GUARANTEE ON THE FOOD PRODUCTION RESILIENCE

关键词:  农业保险  保障水平  粮食生产韧性  倒U型  新型农业经营主体  粮食生产功能区

Key words:  agricultural insurance  guarantee level  food production resilience  inverted U-Shape  new agricultural management entities  grain production zones

摘要:

目的 探究农业保险对粮食生产韧性锻铸的影响效果，寻求保障粮食安全、推进农业农村现代化的新思路。方法 文章基于2008—2022年30个省（市、自治区，不含港澳台和西藏）面板数据，运用熵值法对粮食生产韧性进行综合评价，并结合双向固定效应模型、Ⅳ-2SLS、调节效应模型等分析农业保险对粮食生产韧性的影响与演进路径。结果 （1）农业保险与粮食生产韧性存在稳健的“倒U型”关系，当保障水平跨越拐点值82.39%时，农业保险对粮食生产韧性呈现由“促进”到“抑制”的变化；（2）农业保险对三大功能区粮食生产韧性的影响具有异质性，粮食主产区尚未呈现显著的“倒U型”影响特征。（3）新型农业经营主体发展水平在农业保险影响粮食生产韧性中具有显著调节效应，随着新型农业经营主体发展水平的提高，“倒U型”曲线形态渐趋平缓、拐点右移，抑制效应得到缓解。结论 仍需在适度区间内着力提高农业保险保障水平，注重保险科技应用与风险减量服务推广，对标新型农业经营主体风险保障需求，为粮食生产韧性的锻铸提供长效支撑。

Abstract:

To explore the effect of agricultural insurance on the forging of food production resilience, and to seek new ideas for guaranteeing food security and promoting the modernization of agriculture and rural areas. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) from 2008 to 2022, this study applied the entropy value method to comprehensively evaluate the food production resilience. And it also analyzed the impact and evolution path of agricultural insurance on food production resilience by combining two-way fixed effect model, Ⅳ-2SLS, and moderating effect model. The results were showed as follows. (1) There was a robust "inverted U-shaped" relationship between agricultural insurance and food production resilience, and when the coverage level crossed the inflection point value of 82.39%, the impact of agricultural insurance on food production resilience changed from "promotion" to "inhibition". (2) The impact of agricultural insurance on food production resilience in the three major functional areas was heterogeneous, and the main food-producing areas had not yet shown significant "inverted U-shaped" impact characteristics. (3) The development level of new agricultural management entities had a significant moderating effect in agricultural insurance affecting the resilience of food production, and with the improvement of the development level of new agricultural management entities, the "inverted U-shaped" curve pattern gradually flattened out, the inflection point shifted to the right, and the " inhibitory effect" was alleviated. Accordingly, it is still necessary to make efforts to improve the level of agricultural insurance coverage within the moderate range, focus on the application of insurance science and technology and the promotion of risk reduction services, and meet the risk protection needs of new agricultural management entities, so as to provide long-term support for the forging of the resilience of food production.