续建配套与节水改造对粮食综合生产能力的影响研究——基于湖南省14个市州大型灌区的实证分析

STUDY ON THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINUOUS CONSTRUCTION AND WATER-SAVING TRANSFORMATION ON COMPREHENSIVE GRAIN PRODUCTION CAPACITY——BASED ON THE EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF 14 LARGE IRRIGATION DISTRICTS IN HUNAN PROVINCE

关键词:  续建配套与节水改造  粮食综合生产能力  水利设施  多期DID  并行中介效应

Key words:  continue to build supporting facilities and water-saving transformation  overall grain production capacity  water conservancy facilities  time-varying DID  Parallel Multiple Mediator Effect

摘要:

目的 探究灌区续建配套与节水改造对粮食综合生产能力的影响及作用机制，为农业水利系统建设，保障粮食安全指明方向。方法 文章基于1992—2020年湖南省14个市州大型灌区面板数据，运用多期DID模型分析续建配套与节水改造对粮食综合生产能力的影响，采用并行中介效应与调节效应模型，探讨提高粮食综合生产能力的作用机制。结果 （1）续建配套与节水改造对提高粮食综合生产能力有显著的促进作用；（2）湖南省续建配套与节水改造实施存在区域异质性，环洞庭湖、长株潭，湘中片区效果较为显著；（3 ）续建配套与节水改造能够通过提高气象灾害风险防治能力，促进农户采用节水灌溉技术，保证粮食稳产增产，增强粮食综合生产能力；（4）人力资本在节水灌溉技术应用促进粮食综合生产能力提高方面起调节作用。结论 持续推进续建配套与节水改造，重点建设条件差的地区，努力建设现代化灌区；推广节水灌溉技术，促进水权交易，增加农村人力资本积累；提高灌区抗御灾害能力等以保证粮食综合生产能力的提高。

Abstract:

This paper probes into the influence and mechanism of continuous construction of supporting facilities and water-saving transformation on comprehensive grain production capacity, and points out the direction for the construction of agricultural water conservancy system and ensuring food security. Based on the panel data of 14 large irrigation districts in Hunan province from 1992 to 2020, the Time-varying DID model was used to analyze the effects of continuous construction and water-saving renovation on the comprehensive grain production capacity, and the Parallel Multiple Mediator Effect and Moderating Effect model was used to explore the mechanism of improving the comprehensive grain production capacity. The results were listed as follow. (1) The continuous construction of auxiliary facilities and water-saving transformation had a significant promoting effect on improving the comprehensive grain production capacity. (2) There was regional heterogeneity in the implementation of the reconstruction and water-saving reconstruction in Hunan province, and the effect around Dongting Lake, Changzhutan and Central Hunan was more significant. (3) The continuous construction of supporting facilities and water-saving transformation could improve the ability of meteorological disaster risk prevention and control, promote farmers to adopt water-saving irrigation technology, ensure stable grain yield and increase, and enhance the comprehensive grain production capacity. (4) Human capital played a regulating role in the application of water-saving irrigation technology to improve the comprehensive grain production capacity. Therefore, it should continue to promote the reconstruction of supporting facilities and water saving, focus on the construction of areas with poor conditions, and strive to build modern irrigation areas; promote water-saving irrigation technology, promote water rights trading, and increase rural human capital accumulation and improve the ability of resisting disasters in irrigated areas to ensure the improvement of comprehensive grain production capacity.