山西省粮食生产波动特征及影响因素分析

ANALYSIS OF THE FLUCTUATION CHARACTERISTICS AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF GRAIN PRODUCTION IN SHANXI PROVINCE

关键词:  粮食生产  波动特征  影响因素  H-P滤波法  山西省

Key words:  grain production  fluctuation characteristics  influencing factors  H-P filtering method  Shanxi province

摘要:

目的 探析山西省粮食生产波动特征及其影响因素，为保障粮食生产健康发展可持续提供科学参考。方法 文章通过H-P滤波法测度山西省粮食生产的波动特征，对其时序进行周期划分，并在此基础上借助灰色关联分析法对粮食生产波动的影响因子进行分析。结果 （1）山西粮食生产长期波动趋势整体呈现平滑上升态势，共分为3个曲线阶段：1978—1996年为缓慢平稳上升；1996—2009年属于波动向下平滑曲线；2009—2022年开始恢复平滑上升趋势，并且实现了13年连增态势，年均增长率为3.34%。（2）粮食单产长期趋势与粮食总产呈现相似的“增加—波动—增加”曲线，但比总产更加平缓稳定，表现为逐年递增趋势；粮食播种面积的长期趋势线呈现明显的波动态势，整体呈现先快速下滑，后缓慢上升，然后再下滑的变化趋势。（3）基于变异率测算将山西粮食生产时序划分为7个波动周期：1978—1984年、1984—1990年、1990—1996年、1996—2001年、2001—2006年、2006—2013年、2013—2018年，平均波动周期为6.71年，2018—2022由于波动幅度较小尚未形成波动周期。（4）山西粮食波动中波峰最大值为15.38%，波谷最大值绝对值为32.71%，最大波幅为48.09%，且均出现在1996—2001年的周期；最小波幅7.74%，出现在2013—2018年的周期；平均波幅为23.41%；波峰平均值为10.60%，波谷平均值绝对值为12.82%。粮食生产波动具有连续性特征，且波动幅度较大，幅度变化呈现显著的先增加后减弱的趋势。（5）2001年以前，播种面积、化肥施用量因子对粮食产量的影响较大；2001年以后，效灌溉面积、农业机械总动力、农村居民人均可支配收入、财政支农等因子对粮食产量的影响逐渐增大。在自然因素中，以年降雨量对粮食产量的影响最大，随着有效灌溉面积的影响，年降雨量的影响排序略有向后；平均气温等其他自然因子与粮食产量的关联程度相对稳定。结论 山西粮食生产长期变化趋势基本遵循着“增长—波动—增长”的循环趋势向前。尽管粮食生产短期内波动性较大，但在长期稳产方面表现出一定的可持续性，未来山西粮食生产稳定趋势明显。

Abstract:

To explore the fluctuation characteristics and influencing factors of grain production in Shanxi province, and provide scientific references for ensuring the healthy and sustainable development of grain production. The H-P filtering method was used to measure the fluctuation characteristics of grain production in Shanxi province, and its time series was divided into periods. Based on this, the grey correlation analysis method was used to analyze the influencing factors of grain production fluctuations. The results were listed as follows. (1) The long-term fluctuation trend of grain production in Shanxi province showed a smooth upward trend, which could be divided into three curve stages: from 1978 to 1996, it showed a slow and steady increase; From 1996 to 2009, it belonged to a downward smoothing curve with fluctuations; From 2009 to 2022, a smooth upward trend resumed and a-thirteen-year continuous growth trend was achieved, with an average annual growth rate of 3.34%. (2) The long-term trend of grain yield per unit area showed a similar "increase fluctuation increase" curve to the total grain production, but it was smoother and more stable than the total production, showing an increasing trend year by year. The long-term trend line of grain sowing area showed a clear fluctuation trend, with an overall trend of first rapid declined, then slow increased, and then further declined. (3) Based on the calculation of variation rate, the grain production time series in Shanxi province was divided into seven fluctuation periods: 1978-1984, 1984-1990, 1990-1996, 1996-2001, 2001-2006, 2006-2013, 2013-2018. The average fluctuation period was 6.71 years, and from 2018 to 2022, due to the small fluctuation amplitude, no fluctuation period had yet formed. (4) The maximum peak value of grain fluctuations in Shanxi was 15.38%, the absolute maximum value of valleys was 32.71%, and the maximum amplitude was 48.09%, all of which occurred in the period from 1996 to 2001; The minimum amplitude was 7.74%, occurring in the period from 2013 to 2018; The average wave amplitude was 23.41%; The average peak value was 10.60%, and the absolute average valley value was 12.82%. The fluctuation of grain production had a continuous characteristic, and the fluctuation amplitude is large, showing a significant trend of increasing first and then weakening. (5) Before 2001, factors such as sowing area and fertilizer application had a significant impact on grain yield; Since 2001, the impact of factors such as effective irrigation area, total power of agricultural machinery, per capita disposable income of rural residents, and fiscal support for agriculture on grain production had gradually increased. Among natural factors, annual rainfall had the greatest impact on grain yield, and with the increase of effective irrigation area, the impact of annual rainfall ranks slightly backward; The correlation between average temperature and other natural factors and grain yield was relatively stable. Therefore, the long-term trend of grain production in Shanxi follows a cyclical trend of "growth fluctuation growth". Although grain production fluctuates greatly in the short term, it shows a certain degree of sustainability in long-term stable production, and the stable trend of grain production in Shanxi is obvious in the future.