大食物观下中国对进口粮食实施“双反”措施的福利效应——基于大麦行业的局部均衡模拟分析

THE WELFARE EFFECT OF CHINA'S "ANTI-DUMPING AND COUNTERVAILING" MEASURES ON IMPORTED FOOD UNDER THE BIG FOOD PERSPECTIVE——A SIMULATION STUDY OF PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM BASED ON BARLEY INDUSTRY

关键词:  反倾销  反补贴  贸易格局  局部均衡模型  福利效应

Key words:  anti-dumping  countervailing  trade pattern  partial equilibrium model  welfare effect

摘要:

目的 从全球视角动态评估粮食行业实施“双反”措施的贸易与福利效应，模拟“双反”措施对大麦国际贸易格局演变的影响，进一步提升粮食行业贸易救济政策工具的有效性。方法 文章利用可计算局部均衡GSIM模型，全面性剖析全球视角下中国对澳大利亚大麦实施“双反”措施的经济效应，并根据模拟结果动态刻画全球大麦贸易格局的演变特征。结果 （1）中国对澳大利亚进口大麦征收73.6%的反倾销税和6.9%的反补贴税后，中国国内大麦产量将增加5.05%，国内市场价格增加18.04%。（2）由于贸易转移效应，中国大麦的进口来源国由澳大利亚转移至法国、乌克兰、加拿大等国家，而澳大利亚为减少自身经济损失而寻求新的大麦出口市场，对德国、沙特阿拉伯等国家的出口量有所增加。（3）中国对澳大利亚大麦征税导致澳大利亚净福利水平减少3.32亿美元，远高于中国净福利损失。（4）全球大麦贸易格局的紧密程度因“双反”措施的实施而下降，澳大利亚大麦的出口贸易网络重心由中国转向其他国家，中国大麦的进口贸易网络重心由澳大利亚转向加拿大。结论 应科学把握粮食进口的规模与节奏，优化进口结构的全球化布局；动态评估粮食贸易救济的福利效应，提升贸易救济政策工具的有效性；坚决维护命运共同体的全球理念，构筑互利共赢粮食产业链供应链。

Abstract:

This paper dynamically evaluates the trade and welfare effects of the implementation of "Anti-dumping and Countervailing" measures in the food industry from a global perspective, simulates the impact of "Anti-dumping and Countervailing" measures on the evolution of the international trade pattern of barley, and further enhances the effectiveness of trade remedy policy tools in the food industry. This paper comprehensively analyzed the economic effects of China's "Anti-dumping and Countervailing" measures against Australian barley from a global perspective by using a computable partial equilibrium GSIM model, and dynamically described the evolution characteristics of the global barley trade pattern according to the simulation results. The simulation results were showed as follows. (1) After China imposed 73.6% anti-dumping duty and 6.9% countervailing duty on imported barley from Australia, the export volume of Australian barley to China would decrease by 37.2%, China's domestic barley production would increase by 5.05%, and the domestic market price would increase by 18.04%. (2) Due to the trade transfer effect, the source country of China's barley imports shifted from Australia to France, Ukraine, Canada, and other countries, while Australia sought new barley export markets to reduce its own economic losses, and exported to Germany, Saudi Arabia and other countries increased. (3) China's tax on Australian barley resulted in a US $332 million reduction in Australia's net welfare level, far greater than China's net welfare loss. (4) The tightness of the global barley trade pattern declined due to the implementation of the "Anti-dumping and Countervailing" measures, the center of gravity of Australia's barley export trade network shifted from China to other countries, and the center of China's barley import trade network shifted from Australia to Canada. Therefore, this paper suggests that the scale and rhythm of food imports should be scientifically grasped to optimize the global layout of the import structure; the welfare effects of food trade remedies should be dynamically assessed to enhance the effectiveness of trade remedy policy tools; and the global concept of the community of destiny should be resolutely upheld to construct a mutually beneficial and win-win food industry chain supply chain.