全球谷物供需格局和增产潜力及我国粮食安全策略研究

RESEARCH ON GLOBAL GRAIN SUPPLY AND DEMAND PATTERN AND POTENTIAL OF INCREASING GRAIN PRODUCTION AND CHINA'S FOOD SECURITY STRATEGY

关键词:  谷物生产  粮食贸易  增产潜力  粮食安全

Key words:  grain production  food trade  yield increase potential  food security

摘要:

目的 文章着眼全球粮食安全大视野大格局，在系统分析谷物生产、区域布局、贸易消费的基础上，综合研判全球谷物增产潜力和动能，立足国内国际提出保障国家粮食安全的政策建议。方法 基于此前和今后一个时期全球谷物生产贸易情况，综合运用历史、实证等研究方法，提出全球视角下保障国家粮食安全的重点任务。结果 我国粮食安全总体有保障，但也存在粮食供需紧平衡、国内外价格倒挂等困难和挑战。结论 落实国家粮食安全战略，坚持国内稳产与海外拓展统筹、适度进口与多元进口并举、自主创新与技术交流兼顾、市场实力与治理能力协同，以企业集团为依托布局全球粮食产业链，以科技服务为重点参与全球粮食生产，以渠道多元化为原则优化重点品种进口，以大豆为切入点增强农产品议价能力，把牢国家粮食安全主动权。

Abstract:

Food security is of Paramount importance to the country. Since the 18th National Congress of the CPC, China's grain production has been bumper for years, and grain output has stood firm at 650 million tons, achieving basic self-sufficiency in grains and absolute food security. Focusing on the overall vision of global food security, on the basis of systematic analysis of grain production, regional layout, trade and consumption, comprehensive research and assessment of global grain production potential and driving forces, based on domestic and international policy recommendations to ensure national food security. Based on the situation of global grain production and trade in the past and the coming period, this paper comprehensively uses historical and empirical research methods to propose key tasks for ensuring national food security from a global perspective. China's food security is generally guaranteed, but there are also difficulties and challenges such as tight balance between food supply and demand, and inverted prices at home and abroad. To implement the national food security strategy, adhere to the coordination between domestic stable production and overseas expansion, moderate imports and diversified imports, independent innovation and technology export and introduction, and market strength and governance capacity, rely on enterprise groups to layout the global food industry chain, focus on scientific and technological services to participate in global food production, and optimize the import of key varieties on the principle of diversification of channels. We should strengthen the bargaining power of agricultural products by taking soybean as the starting point and seize the initiative of national food security.