长江十年禁渔背景下鄱阳湖流域渔业发展时空演变及其驱动机制研究

SPATIAL-TEMPORAL EVOLUTION AND DRIVING MECHANISM OF FISHERY DEVELOPMENT IN POYANG LAKE BASIN UNDER THE BACKGROUND OF TEN-YEAR FISHING BAN IN YANGTZE RIVER

关键词:  内陆渔业  时空格局  驱动机制  鄱阳湖流域  长江十年禁渔

Key words:  inland fishery  spatio-temporal pattern  driving mechanism  Poyang Lake Basin  ten-year fishing ban in Yangtze River

摘要:

目的 鄱阳湖流域拥有中国第一大淡水湖及赣、抚、信、饶和修“五河”水系，是中国内陆重要渔业生产区。然而，该区域渔业发展时空演变及其影响因素仍不明晰，特别是2019年长江禁捕退捕政策开始实施以来的变化态势值得关注。方法 文章以江西省各县域为基本空间单元，借助空间自相关、区域重心、地理加权回归等地理学方法探索鄱阳湖流域禁渔前后（2018—2021）渔业发展结构变化、时空分异及其驱动机制。结果 （1）全面禁渔后鄱阳湖流域渔业捕捞量锐减但养殖量稳定增长，水产品总产量表现为增长态势。退捕禁渔优化了渔业产业结构，降低了渔业捕捞依赖性和生态环境负外部性。（2）水产品产量呈显著的空间自相关，且高—高集聚于鄱阳湖核心区，禁渔后赣北鄱阳湖区捕捞量锐减、赣南和赣东北养殖量增加，渔业重心向东南迁移2.07 km，渔业发展格局由“鄱阳湖极核”驱动转向“鄱阳湖极核+赣南赣东北多地”联动。（3）GWR回归系数影响效应呈南北梯级增强或衰减，渔业机械、机动渔船、渔业从业人员和养殖面积对水产品产量影响呈南北梯级变化，地区生产总值和水系密度则呈鲜明的南北正负差异。结论 未来应根据要素空间效应差异有侧重地加大要素投入，优化赣北鄱阳湖核心区；优选特色品种、适当扩大规模，打造赣南山涧冷水特色区；加强禁渔力度和专业从业人员技能培训，提升“五河”支流潜力区。

Abstract:

Poyang Lake Basin, with the largest fresh water lake in China and "five rivers" system consist of Ganjiang River, Fuhe River, Xinjiang River, Raohe River, Xiuhe River, is an important inland fishery area. However, the spatial-temporal pattern of fishery in this region and its influencing factors are still unclear, especially the changing trend after the implementation of ten-year fishing ban in 2019 is noteworthy to report. Taking counties of Jiangxi province as basic spatial units, this research explored the structural changes, spatial-temporal differentiation and driving mechanisms of fishery development during the implementation of fishing ban (2018—2021) in Poyang Lake Basin through multiple geographical methods including spatial autocorrelation, regional center of gravity, and geographical weighted regression. The results were showed as follows. (1) After the fishing ban, the fishery catch decreased sharply but the aquaculture increased steadily, and the total fishery output showed an increasing trend. The fishing ban optimized the structure of fishery industry and reduced the dependence on fishery catch and the negative externalities on ecological environment. (2) The fishery output showed a significant spatial autocorrelation, and was highly concentrated in the core area of Poyang Lake. Due to the decrease of fishery catch in northern Jiangxi and the increase of aquaculture output in the southern and northeast, the fishery center of gravity moved to the southeast for 2.07 km, and the pattern of fishery development shifted from "Poyang Lake polar core" to "Poyang Lake polar core + multiple linked areas in southern Jiangxi and northeast Jiangxi". (3) The effect of GWR regression coefficient increased or decreased in a north-south cascade. Fishery machinery, motor fishing vessels, fishery employees, and aquaculture area all had a positive and north-south gradient effect on fishery output, while gross domestic product and water area density showed dichotomous effects between the north and the south, namely, positive (or negative) in the north and otherwise in the south. Therefore, in the future, it needs urgently to optimize the spatial pattern of fishery development in Jiangxi province. Specifically, the core area of Poyang Lake in northern Jiangxi needs optimization through input increase according to the difference of spatial effects of influencing factors. The Gannan mountainous and cold water area can be further build through characteristic varieties breeding and scale expanding appropriately. Meanwhile, more efforts should be made to implement the fishing ban policy and strengthen the skills training of professional fishermen in the "five rivers" tributary potential area.