全球畜产品贸易网络演化特征及对中国的启示

EVOLUTIONARY CHARACTERISTICS OF GLOBAL LIVESTOCK PRODUCT TRADE NETWORK AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR CHINA

关键词:  全球贸易  畜产品贸易  复杂网络分析法  QAP  中国

Key words:  global trade  livestock trade  complex network analysis method  QAP  China

摘要:

目的 畜产品作为仅次于大豆、小麦和玉米等粮食产品的第二大农产品，中国居民对其需求日益高涨，理清全球畜产品贸易格局有助于提高中国畜产品进口贸易的风险应对能力，同时也助于保障粮食安全。方法 文章基于2000—2021年全球畜产品贸易数据，运用复杂网络分析法，研究了全球畜产品贸易网络演变特征，并运用QAP分析法实证分析了全球畜产品贸易网络格局的影响因素。结果 （1）全球畜产品贸易网络呈现出“小世界”和“无标度”的网络特征，具有明显的核心—边缘结构，始终保持着欧洲第一、美洲第二、大洋洲第三的出口贸易格局，亚洲在全球畜产品进口贸易中的比重逐步上升。（2）受地缘政治等因素的影响，全球畜产品贸易网络逐渐演变为四大社团：以美国为中心的美洲社团，以荷兰、德国和法国为中心的欧洲社团，以巴西、新西兰和澳大利亚为中心的大洋洲—南美洲社团，以及东欧—亚洲社团。（3）地理位置、经济差异和全球一体化发展程度是影响全球畜产品贸易格局的最主要因素。经济差异是全球畜产品贸易网络日益复杂的根本原因，地理位置是否接壤和自贸协定的签署是影响全球畜产品贸易格局的重要因素，中国已成为全球第一大畜产品进口国，对国际市场的依赖程度不断提高。结论 为保障未来中国畜产品的安全供应，一方面可以巩固与巴西、美国、新西兰和澳大利亚的关系，另一方面也可以深化与欧洲各国的关系，挖掘自欧洲进口畜产品的贸易潜力，此外，也要加快畜产品产业链核心技术研究，建立科技创新驱动的畜产品生产模式。

Abstract:

As the second largest agricultural product after soybean, wheat, corn and other food products, livestock products are increasingly demanded by Chinese residents, and clarifying the global trade pattern of livestock products can help improve China's ability to cope with the risks of livestock product import trade, and also help ensure food security. Based on the global livestock products trade data from 2000 to 2021,this paper investigated the evolution characteristics of the global livestock products trade network by using the complex network analysis method, and empirically analysed the influencing factors of the global livestock products trade network pattern by using the QAP analysis method. The results showed that: (1) The global livestock products trade network presented the characteristics of "small world"and "scale-free" network, with obvious core-edge structure, always maintaining the export trade pattern of Europe first, America second and Oceania third, and the proportion of Asia in the global livestock products import trade was gradually increasing. (2) Influenced by geopolitical factors, the global livestock trade network had gradually evolved into four major associations: the American association centred on the United States,the European association centred on the Netherlands,Germany and France,the Oceania-South American association centred on Brazil,New Zealand and Australia,and the Eastern Europe-Asia association.Geographical location,economic differences and the degree of development of global integration are the most important factors affecting the pattern of global trade in livestock products.Economic differences are the fundamental reason for the increasing complexity of the global livestock products trade network.Whether the geographical location is bordering or not and the signing of FTAs are the important factors affecting the global livestock products trade pattern,and China has become the world's top livestock products importer,with an increasing dependence on the international market. In order to ensure the security of China's livestock product supply in the future,on the one hand,we can consolidate the relationship with Brazil,the United States,New Zealand and Australia,and on the other hand, we can also deepen the relationship with the European countries to explore the trade potential of livestock products imported from Europe,in addition,we also need to speed up the research of core technology of animal husbandry, and to establish a scientific and technological innovation-driven animal husbandry production model.