中国农村人口老龄化时空变化及其成因分析

ANALYSIS OF SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CHANGES IN THE AGING OF CHINA'S RURAL POPULATION AND ITS CAUSES

关键词:  老龄化  农村人口  时空变化  成因  空间计量

Key words:  population aging  rural population  spatio-temporal differentiation  causes  spatial measurement

摘要:

目的 我国农村人口老龄化问题日趋严重，而其时空变化规律及成因有待进一步明晰。方法 文章基于2000年、2010年和2020年三次全国人口普查数据，综合应用探索性空间数据分析和空间计量模型从时空维度探究了中国分地区农村人口老龄化时空变化及其成因。结果 （1）我国各省（区、市）农村人口老龄化程度逐渐加深，增速最快的省（区、市）主要集中在“胡焕庸线”两侧，东北和中部地区老龄化程度增加较快。（2）在不同人均收入水平和收入增速变化下不同区域老龄化程度和变化速度存在一定空间差异。（3）我国各地农村人口老龄化集聚特征较为明显，且经历了区域间差异较大再到各地农村地区老龄化普遍加深的过程。（4）我国农村人口老龄化时空变化成因分析结果发现死亡率和预期寿命对农村人口老龄化空间格局变化的影响最大；城镇化率和人均可支配收入均对农村人口老龄化空间格局变化有显著影响；各地医疗水平对农村人口老龄化空间格局变化的影响越来越大。结论 根据研究得出的结论，提出了因地制宜、分区施策缓解农村人口老龄化所带来的负面影响；大力建设完善农村养老公共设施，补齐农村老龄事业发展短板；建立多层次的农村养老保障资金筹措机制，推动土地适度规模经营等三方面对策建议。

Abstract:

The problem of the aging of the rural population in China is becoming more and more serious, and its spatial and temporal patterns and causes need to be further clarified. Based on the three national census data in 2000, 2010, and 2020, this paper comprehensively applied exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial econometric modeling to investigate the spatial and temporal changes of rural population aging and its causes in China's provinces. The results showed that: (1) The degree of aging of the rural population in China's provinces had gradually deepened, with the fastest-growing provinces mainly concentrated on both sides of the Hu Huanyong Line, and the degree of aging had increased more rapidly in the northeastern and central provinces. (2) There were certain spatial differences in the degree and speed of aging in different regions under different levels of per capita income and changes in income growth. (3) The aging of the rural population in each province of China was more obvious and experienced the large differences between regions to the aging of rural areas in each province generally deepened. (4) The analysis of the causes of the spatial and temporal changes in the aging of China's rural population revealed that the continuous accumulation of the population promotes aging and that the mortality rate and life expectancy had the greatest impact on the aging of the rural population; the urbanization rate and the per capita disposable income had a significant impact on the aging of the rural population in each province; and the medical level of the provinces had an increasing impact on the aging of the rural population. Therefore, based on the conclusions of the study, three policy recommendations are put forward, namely, to mitigate the negative impacts of rural population aging by adapting to local conditions and applying measures at the regional level; to vigorously build and improve public facilities for the elderly in rural areas and make up for the shortcomings in the development of the rural aging cause; and to set up a multilevel mechanism for financing rural old-age pension security and to promote the appropriate scale of land management.