饲料价格波动对畜产品价格的时变冲击效应研究

TIME-VARYING IMPACT EFFECT OF FEED PRICE FLUCTUATIONS ON LIVESTOCK PRODUCT PRICES

关键词:  饲料价格  畜产品价格  冲击  价格传导  TVP-SV-VAR模型

Key words:  feed prices  livestock product prices  impact  price transmission  TVP-SV-VAR model

摘要:

目的 高饲料成本与低畜禽价格的双重挤压导致养殖户利润持续下滑，甚至亏损。研究饲料价格波动对畜产品价格的传导效应及影响程度，有助于为政府、养殖户提供调控策略，确保养殖户利润和产业持续健康发展。方法 文章基于2008年1月至2023年8月中国主要饲料和畜产品价格，运用时变参数向量自回归模型研究饲料与畜产品市场之间的价格波动传导响应机制和传递时效。结果 （1）饲料价格波动冲击并非畜产价格长期波动的主要原因，应对饲料价格波动时，猪肉市场和鸡肉市场的反应相似，羊肉市场和牛肉市场的反应相似；（2）饲料价格波动对猪肉价格存在显著的负向影响效应，玉米、豆粕价格每上涨1%，猪肉价格增长率分别约下降0.003%、0.006%，玉米价格波动冲击对鸡肉价格存在短期为负长期为正的反转效应；（3）饲料价格波动冲击对猪肉市场的影响持续10个月左右，对鸡肉、羊肉、牛肉市场影响持续15个月左右，除鸡肉市场外，玉米价格波动对畜产品市场的冲击作用较豆粕而言更为迅速。结论 基于此，提出鼓励养殖户使用风险管理工具；加强非常规原料替代力度、加强战略性采购；完善价格参数采集体系和采集标准，逐步建立价格保险机制等政策建议。

Abstract:

The livestock industry is grappling with a sustained decrease, and even losses, in breeder profits due to the dual pressure from elevated feed costs and diminished livestock and poultry prices. Investigating the transmission effects and influencing mechanisms of feed price fluctuations on livestock product prices is instrumental in providing regulatory strategies for governments and breeders, ensuring the persistent and healthy development of breeder profits and the industry. Utilizing data on major feed and livestock product prices in China from January 2008 to August 2023, this study adopted the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression model to explore the price fluctuation transmission response mechanism and transmission timeliness between feed and livestock product markets. The results were found as follows. (1) The impact of feed price fluctuations was not the principal cause of long-term fluctuations in livestock prices. When responding to feed price fluctuations, the pork and chicken markets exhibited similar reactions, as did the mutton and beef markets. (2) There was a significant negative impact of feed price volatility on pork prices. Specifically, a 1% increasing in the prices of corn and soybean meal led to a respective approximate decrease of 0.003% and 0.006% in the growth rate of pork prices. Moreover, corn price fluctuations exerted a short-term negative but long-term positive reversal effect on chicken prices. (3) The impact of feed price fluctuations persisted for about ten months in the pork market and approximately fifteen months in the chicken, sheep, and beef markets. The impact of corn price fluctuations on the livestock product market, except for the chicken market, occurred more rapidly compared to soybean meal. Therefore, based on these findings, policy recommendations are proposed, including encouraging breeders to utilize risk management tools, intensifying the substitution of unconventional raw materials, enhancing strategic procurement, perfecting the price parameter collection system and standards, and progressively establishing a price insurance mechanism.