长江禁捕对退捕渔民收入差距的影响研究

THE IMPACT OF FISHING BAN POLICY ON FISHERMEN'S INCOME DISPARITY IN YANGTZE RIVER

关键词:  长江禁捕政策  渔民收入差距  反事实分析  消费差距  专项补偿

Key words:  Yangtze River fishing ban policy  fishermen's income disparity  counterfactual analysis  consumption gap of fishermen groups  special compensation

摘要:

目的 在长江流域实行为期十年的禁捕政策，有利于保护生态环境和资源的可持续利用。其关键是妥善安置退捕渔民，如何提高渔民收入，缩小收入差距，进而推动禁捕政策能够长期有效地运行。方法 文章基于2021年“长江流域十省百县千户调查”数据，通过基尼系数和分位数回归模型，运用“反事实分析”方法研究了禁捕前后的渔民收入差距和消费差距变化，进而研究了影响中低收入渔民的因素。结果 （1）专项补偿有力地避免了退捕渔民群体收入出现两极分化，但低收入渔民数量增加和高收入渔民群体收入份额的提高同样不利于收入分配差距的缩小。（2）2~3年的专项补偿结束后，退捕渔民的收入差距很可能会发生较大程度的扩大，政府的支持需要在较长时间内继续保持。（3）教育程度、健康状况、工作的稳定性及收入来源多样化对于提高中低收入渔民的收入和缩小收入差距能发挥较大的作用。结论 “长江十年禁捕”对退捕渔民的收入及收入差距的影响较大，政府专项补偿虽然起到了强有力的缓冲作用，但需长期化和有针对性，以实现共同富裕的目标。

Abstract:

The implementation of a 10-years fishing ban policy in the Yangtze River basin is conducive to the protection of the ecological environment and the resources sustainable use. The key is how to resettle retired fishermen properly, increase their income, narrow the income gap, and then promote the long-term and effective operation of the fishing ban policy. Based on a survey of retired fishermen in the Yangtze River in 2021, the Gini coefficient method, quantile regression model and the "counterfactual analysis" method was used to analyze the changes in the income gap and consumption gap of fishermen before and after the policy implemented, and then the factors which affected low and middle income fishermen groups' income were studied. The results were showed as follows. (1) Special compensation avoided the income polarization of fishermen group effectively, but the increase in numbers of low income fishermen and the increase in the income share of high income fishermen hindered the narrowing of the income disparity. (2) The income disparity was likely to widen when the 2-3 years of special compensation finished, so the government compensation needed to be maintained for a longer period of time. (3) Fishermen's education level, health status, job stability and diversification of income sources could play a great role in increasing the income of low and middle income fishermen groups and narrowing the income gap. Although the special compensation plays a strong buffer role in stabilizing the retired fishermen's income and narrowing the income gap, its' duration needs to be extended and targets needs to be more precise to achieve the goal of common prosperity.