黄河流域农业碳排放与经济增长时空耦合关系研究

SPATIO-TEMPORAL COUPLING RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AGRICULTURAL CARBON EMISSION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE YELLOW RIVER BASIN

关键词:  黄河流域  农业碳排放  经济增长  时空差异  耦合协调

Key words:  Yellow River Basin  agricultural carbon emissions  economic growth  spatial and temporal differences  coupling coordination

摘要:

目的 为明晰黄河流域农业碳减排与其经济增长之间的矛盾，实现农业碳排放与其经济增长间脱耦以及稳定的强脱钩状态。方法 文章通过构建农业碳排放核算模型和农业碳排放经济效率模型，对1997—2021年黄河流域9省区农业碳排放量排放进行测算，并在厘清流域内农业碳排放和农业增加值区域差异及公平性评价的基础上，运用耦合协调模型和Tapio脱钩模型探究农业碳排放系统和经济增长系统之间的“耦合协调”和“脱钩”关系及演化特征。结果 （1）黄河流域9省区农业碳排放总量呈现了“持续上升—平稳达峰—持续下降”的“倒U型”波动变化，且在2015年达到峰值，“减肥减药”行动对于农业生产减碳减排起到正向作用，农业增加值始终处于持续上升的理想态势；（2）黄河流域农业碳排放经济效率指数具有较大区域差异，主要源于各省区经济作物种植结构、畜牧养殖规模和农业物质投入水平等方面；（3）黄河流域农业碳排放与经济增长的耦合协调状态，基本实现了从初级失调向整体协调的转变，且表现为上游地区转变速率最快，中游地区整体速率居中，下游地区转变最具稳定性；（4）黄河流域各省区农业碳排放与经济增长间的脱钩状态，整体以弱脱钩和强脱钩等有利脱钩状态为主，表明在多情景下经济增长速度都要明显快于农业碳排放，且部分年份碳排放增速甚至为负的理想状态，表明各省份农业碳减排工作均取得积极成效。结论 黄河流域9省区农业碳排放总量已过峰值，实现了与其经济增长间脱耦以及有利脱钩状态，呈现流域农业生产结构合理化和高级化的发展趋势。

Abstract:

To clarify the contradiction between agricultural carbon emissions reduction and economic growth in the Yellow River Basin, and achieve decoupling and stable strong decoupling between agricultural carbon emissions and economic growth. By constructing an agricultural carbon emission accounting model and an agricultural carbon emission economic efficiency model, the agricultural carbon emissions of 9 provinces in the Yellow River Basin from 1997 to 2021 were calculated. Based on clarifying the regional differences and fairness evaluation of agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural added value in the basin, exploring the "coupling coordination" and "decoupling" relationships and evolutionary characteristics between agricultural carbon emission systems and economic growth systems using the coupling coordination model and Tapio decoupling model. The results were listed as follows. (1) The total agricultural carbon emissions of 9 provinces in the Yellow River Basin showed an "inverted U-shaped" fluctuation pattern of "continuous increase, stable peak, and continuous decrease", and reached its peak in 2015. The "reduction of fertilizers and pesticides" action had played a positive role in reducing carbon emissions in agricultural production, and the added value of agriculture had always been in an ideal trend of continuous increase; (2) The economic efficiency index of agricultural carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin had significant regional differences, mainly due to the planting structure of economic crops, the scale of animal husbandry, and the level of agricultural material input in various provinces and regions; (3) The coupling and coordination state between agricultural carbon emissions and economic growth in the Yellow River Basin had basically achieved a transformation from primary imbalance to overall coordination, with the fastest transformation rate in the upstream region, the middle reaches having a moderate overall rate, and the downstream region having the most stable transformation; (4) The decoupling status between agricultural carbon emissions and economic growth in various provinces and regions of the Yellow River Basin was mainly characterized by weak decoupling and strong decoupling, indicating that the economic growth rate was significantly faster than agricultural carbon emissions under multiple scenarios, and the growth rate of carbon emissions in some years was even negative, indicating that all provinces had achieved positive results in agricultural carbon reduction work. In summary, the total agricultural carbon emissions of 9 provinces in the Yellow River Basin exceedes their peak, achieving decoupling and favorable decoupling from their economic growth, presenting a development trend of rational and advanced agricultural production structure in the basin.