中国粮食体系韧性测度、时空分异及推进路径——基于三大粮食功能区及四大经济区域的比较视角

MEASUREMENT, SPATIAL-TEMPORAL DIVERSITY, AND PROMOTIONPATH OF RESILIENCE IN CHINA'S GRAIN SYSTEM——A COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE BASED ON THE THREE MAJOR GRAINFUNCTIONAL ZONES AND THE FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC REGIONS

关键词:  粮食体系韧性  区域差异  时空演变  空间分布  推进路径

Key words:  food system resilience  regional differences  temporal and spatial evolution  spatial distribution  promotion approach

摘要:

目的 测算中国粮食体系韧性水平的基础上刻画其时空演变规律，为统筹协调全国粮食体系韧性发展提供决策建议。方法 文章基于2012—2021年我国31个省（市、区，不含港澳台）的面板数据，综合运用熵值法、泰尔指数、ArcGIS和莫兰指数等方法，对中国粮食体系韧性总体水平、区域差异、时间演变和空间关联等特征进行深入剖析。结果 （1）从整体上看，我国粮食体系韧性水平稳步上升，绝大多数省份粮食体系抵抗风险的能力有所提升。（2）从区域差异来看，三大粮食功能区粮食体系韧性强弱为主产区＞产销平衡区＞主销区，产销平衡区内部差异正在加剧。四大经济区域粮食体系韧性强弱为中部＞东北＞东部＞西部，四大区域的差异主要来自区域内部，其中东部地区的差异及贡献度均最大。（3）从时空演变来看，近10年除陕西由中度韧性下降为较低韧性水平外，其余省份粮食体系韧性总体“向好”演进。（4）从空间相关性来看，中国粮食体系韧性发展存在显著的空间集聚效应。当前表现为H—L型集聚省份较少，H—H型、L—H型和L—L型集聚省份分布较为均匀。结论 中国粮食体系韧性时空分异特征明显，要推动粮食主产区在扛稳粮食安全重任上发挥更大作用、提升产销平衡区粮食自给率、促进东部经济发达地区城市化与粮食安全协调发展、夯实西部欠发达地区粮食产能基础，以缩小区域间粮食体系韧性差距，切实增强我国粮食安全保障能力。

Abstract:

To calculate the resilience level of China's grain system and characterize its spatial and temporal evolution, and provide decision-making suggestions for coordinating the resilience development of the national grain system. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces (cities, autonomous regions excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) in China from 2012 to 2021, this study comprehensively used the entropy method, the Theil index, ArcGIS, Moran's index, and other methods to conduct an in-depth analysis of the overall level, regional differences, temporal evolution, and spatial correlation of the resilience of China's grain system. The results were listed as follows. (1) Overall, the resilience level of China's grain system had steadily increased, and the ability of the grain system in most provinces to resist risks had been improved. (2) From the perspective of regional differences, the resilience of the grain system in the three major grain functional zones was dominated by the main production areas > the production and sales balance areas > the main sales areas, and the internal differences in the production and sales balance areas were intensifying. The resilience of the grain system in the four major economic regions was central >northeastern > eastern > western, and the differences among the four regions mainly come from within the regions, with the eastern region having the largest differences and contributions.(3) From the perspective of temporal and spatial evolution, the resilience of the grain system in other provinces except Shaanxi was generally "improving".(4) From the perspective of spatial correlation, there was a significant spatial agglomeration effect in the resilient development of China's grain system. And in the research time, there were few H—L agglomeration provinces, while the H—H, L—H and L—L agglomeration provinces were relatively evenly distributed. In summary, overall, the spatial agglomeration characteristics of resilience in China's grain system are evident. It is necessary to promote major grain-producing areas to play a greater role in stabilizing food security, ensure the basic self-sufficiency of grain in the balanced production and marketing area, promote the coordinated development of urbanization and grain production in economically developed regions in the east, and enhance the grain production capacity base in the western region, in order to narrow the gap in resilience between regions and effectively enhance China's food security guarantee capability.