林业碳汇抵消政策分担减排压力的效应研究

EFFECT OF FORESTRY CARBON OFFSET POLICY ON SHARING THE PRESSURE OF EMISSION REDUCTION

关键词:  林业碳汇抵消政策  边际减排成本  效应分析  合成控制法  方向距离函数

Key words:  forestry carbon offset policy  marginal abatement cost  effect analysis  synthetic control method  directional distance function

摘要:

目的 林业碳汇作为较为易得的负排放技术，对于实现碳中和不可或缺。但林业碳汇抵消政策推行时间较短，评估其在分担减排压力中的效应对于相关政策优化具有重要意义。方法 文章基于产业组织理论框架分析林业碳汇减排的抵消机理；然后，基于2000—2020年中国30个省（市、区，不含港澳台和西藏）的面板数据，采用方向距离函数测算了各省市的边际减排成本，进而采用合成控制法以北京、广东、福建的林业碳汇抵消政策应用为自然实验，并采用安慰剂检验和双重差分检验验证了结果的有效性。结果 （1）林业碳汇抵消政策是融合多种效益后的帕累托改进，但它只有在控排企业购买林业碳汇的总效用边际损失低于其采用其他减排方式产生的边际成本时，才能有效分担减排压力；而且，严格的碳减排政策会增强控排企业对林业碳汇的需求意愿。（2）受地理位置、经济水平和产业结构的影响，林业碳汇抵消政策分担减排压力的效应存在区域异质性。林业碳汇抵消政策分担了广东和福建的减排压力，但北京的减排压力仍旧处于上升状态。结论 提出林业碳抵消政策应结合区域特点差异化实施，对于森林资源丰富的省市，采用跨区域交易的方式，与森林资源匮乏的地区形成对接，产生溢出效应，避免因需求不足造成资源闲置；对于经济发展水平较高的省市，采用提高林业碳汇抵消比例的方式降低减排压力。另外，资源配置应激发市场活力，实现供需的同步均衡。

Abstract:

The forestry carbon sink is a crucial negative emission technology that plays an essential role in achieving carbon neutrality. However, the forestry carbon offset policy has been implemented for a short period, and thus, it is urgent to evaluate its mechanism and effect in sharing the pressure of emission reduction. This research analyzed the offset mechanism of forestry carbon sink emission reduction based on the SCP framework. Then based on the panel data of 30 provinces (cities, autonomous regions) in China from 2000 to 2020, it measured the marginal abatement cost of each provinces (cities, autonomous regions) by using the directional distance function, and then took the application of the forestry carbon sink offset policy in Beijing, Guangdong, and Fujian as a natural experiment by adopting a synthetic control method, and verified the validity of the results by using the placebo tests and the differences-in-differences tests. The study showed that: (1) The forestry carbon offset policy was a Pareto improvement after integrating multiple benefits, but it could effectively share the pressure of emission reduction only when the marginal loss of total utility of purchasing forestry carbon sinks by emission control enterprises was lower than the marginal cost of adopting other emission reduction methods; moreover, stricter carbon emission reduction policies would increase enterprises' demand for forestry carbon sinks. (2) The impact of forestry carbon offset policy on sharing abatement pressure had regional heterogeneity, which was affected mainly by geographical location, economic level, and industrial structure. It could be obtained that the forestry carbon offset policy had shared the pressure for emission reductions in Guangdong and Fujian, but the pressure on Beijing to reduce emissions was still on the rise. Based on these, this paper proposes that the implementation of the forestry carbon offset policy should be differentiated in consideration of the regional characteristics to ensure the supply and enhance the demand for forestry carbon sinks. Regions with abundant forest resources should adopt cross-regional trading with regions with scarce forest resources to generate spillover effects and avoid idle resources caused by insufficient demand. Economically advanced regions should consider increasing the proportion of forestry carbon sink offsets to alleviate the imperative to reduce emissions. Moreover, resource allocation should motivate market power to achieve a simultaneous balance between supply and demand.