中国与中亚国家农产品贸易格局及效率研究

STUDY ON THE PATTERN AND EFFICIENCY OF AGRICULTURAL TRADE BETWEEN CHINA AND CENTRAL ASIAN COUNTRIES

关键词:  中国  中亚互联互通  农产品贸易格局  随机前沿分析  出口贸易效率

Key words:  China  Central Asia connectivity  agricultural trade patterns  stochastic frontier analysis  export trade efficiency

摘要:

目的 剖析中国与中亚5国农产品贸易格局，为中国与中亚国家农产贸易的发展提出可行性建议。方法 文章基于2003—2021年的面板数据，从互联互通视角分析了中国与中亚5国农产品贸易潜力及影响因素，侧重于农产品出口，采用指数计算法和随机前沿引力模型进行实证分析。结果 （1）中国与中亚国家之间的农产品贸易规模正在不断扩大，贸易关系更加紧密。尽管中国在中亚国家农产品贸易中的地位在逐渐提升，但其进出口贸易规模仍然相对较小；（2）在影响因素方面，中国人口规模和中亚国家经济总量对农产品出口具有显著负向影响。相比之下，中国经济总量、中亚国家人口规模和共同边界则与农产品出口具有正向影响。上海合作组织对中国农产品出口的影响效应相对较弱，其带动作用有限；（3）从互联互通视角来看，政府效能指数、铁路货物运输、货币自由度和文化距离均对农产品出口效率具有正向促进作用，贸易自由度对贸易效率具有负向影响；（4）虽然中国对中亚5国的农产品出口贸易效率仍处于较低水平，但呈现出逐年增强的态势。结论 中国与中亚5国的农产品贸易潜力巨大，未来具有广阔的发展前景。

Abstract:

This research is intended to analyze the potential of agricultural trade between China and five Central Asian countries, so as to put forward feasible suggestions for the development of China's agricultural trade with Central Asian countries. Based on the panel data from 2003 to 2021, this study analyzed the pattern of agricultural trade between China and five Central Asian countries, and the factors affecting it from the perspective of connectivity, focusing on the export of agricultural products, and conducted an empirical analysis by using the index calculation method and stochastic frontier gravity model The results showed that: (1) The scale of agricultural trade between China and Central Asian countries was expanding, and trade relations had become closer. Although China's position in the agricultural trade of Central Asian countries was gradually increasing, the scale of its import and export trade was still relatively small; (2) In terms of influencing factors, the study found that China's population size and the total economic volume of Central Asian countries had a significant negative impact on agricultural exports. In contrast, China's total economic volume, the population size of Central Asian countries and common borders had a positive impact on agricultural exports. However, the effect of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on China's agricultural exports was relatively weak, and its driving effect was limited; (3) From the perspective of connectivity, government effectiveness index, railroad freight transportation, monetary freedom and cultural distance all had a positive contribution to the efficiency of agricultural exports. However, trade freedom had a negative impact on trade efficiency; (4) Although the trade efficiency of China's agricultural exports to the five Central Asian countries was still at a low level, it showed an increasing trend year by year. Therefore, China's agricultural trade with the five Central Asian countries has great potential and has a broad development prospect in the future.