新型城镇化与水生态韧性的交互耦合及驱动因素——基于中部地区研究

INTERACTIVE COUPLING AND DRIVING FACTORS OF NEW URBANIZATION AND WATER ECOLOGICAL RESILIENCE BASED ON A STUDY IN CENTRAL CHINA

关键词:  中部地区  新型城镇化  水生态韧性  耦合协调  交互胁迫

Key words:  Central China  new urbanization  water ecological resilience  coupling coordination  interactive stress

摘要:

目的 伴随着城镇化发展，中国出现了水生态环境恶化，如何在城镇化进程中提升水生态韧性，改善水生态环境亟待解决。方法 文章以我国中部地区为研究对象，采用熵值法、耦合协调度模型、交互胁迫模型、面板Tobit模型实证研究了新型城镇化与水生态韧性间的耦合协调性、交互胁迫关系及耦合协调的驱动因素。结果 （1）研究期内，中部地区新型城镇化水平显著提高，具有明显的阶段性特征，存在省份间不平衡；中部地区水生态韧性水平在波动中上升，存在省份异质性。（2）中部地区新型城镇化与水生态韧性的耦合协调度整体上呈先下降后增长的态势，耦合协调发展水平在空间上呈现“南高、北低”“沿江省份高、沿黄省份低”的格局，具有明显的地域特征。（3）中部地区新型城镇化与水生态韧性之间存在交互胁迫关系，演化状态基本符合U形非线性曲线特征。（4）中部地区经济发展水平、人力资本水平、要素聚集程度、技术进步水平均有助于新型城镇化与水生态韧性耦合协调度的提升，前两者不显著；中部地区对外开放程度和工业化水平则均不利于耦合协调度的提升。分样本估计存在异质性。结论 在注重新型城镇化提质增效，推动城镇化发展模式向集约、绿色、低碳、智能转变的同时，统筹水资源、水环境、水生态治理，推动水生态韧性恢复与提升。

Abstract:

With urbanization, the water ecological environment in China has deteriorated and the water ecological resilience has declined. Thus, there is an urgent need to solve the problem of how to improve the water ecological environment and enhance water ecological resilience in the process of urbanization. In this study, taking Central China as the research object, the entropy method, coupling coordination degree model, interactive stress model, and panel Tobit model were used to study the coupling coordination, interaction stress relationship, and driving factors of coupling coordination between new urbanization and water ecological resilience empirically. The results indicated that: (1) During the study period, the level of new urbanization in Central China increased significantly, with obvious stage characteristics and imbalances among provinces. The level of water ecological resilience in Central China also increased but with fluctuations, and there was provincial heterogeneity. (2) The coupling coordination degree of new urbanization and water ecological resilience in Central China as a whole showed a trend of decreasing first and then increasing, and the coupling coordination development level presented a spatial pattern of high in the south and low in the north and high in the provinces along the Yangtze River and low in the provinces along the Yellow River, revealing obvious regional characteristics. (3) There was an interactive stress relationship between new urbanization and water ecological resilience in Central China, and the evolution basically conformed to a U-shaped nonlinear curve. (4) The economic development level, human capital level, factor aggregation level, and technological progress level of Central China all contributed to the improvement of the coupling coordination degree of new urbanization and water ecological resilience, but the former two were not significant. The degree of opening to the outside world and the industrialization level in Central China were not conducive to improvement of the degree of coupling coordination. However, there was heterogeneity in sub-sample estimation. Therefore, while focusing on improving the quality and efficiency of new urbanization and promoting the transformation of the urbanization development model to an intensive, green, low-carbon, and intelligent model, we will coordinate the governance of water resources, water environment, and water ecology and promote the restoration and improvement of water ecological resilience.