农业水资源生态韧性时空演化及多尺度障碍因子分析——以黄河流域9省区为例

SPATIO-TEMPORAL EVOLUTION AND MULTI-SCALE BARRIER FACTOR ANALYSIS OF ECOLOGICAL RESILIENCE OF AGRICULTURAL WATER RESOURCES: A CASE STUDY OF NINE PROVINCES IN THE YELLOW RIVER BASIN

关键词:  黄河流域  农业水资源生态韧性  时空演化  障碍因子  DSPIR模型

Key words:  Yellow River Basin  ecological resilience of agricultural water resources  space-time evolution  obstacle factor  DSPIR model

摘要:

目的 农业水资源生态韧性是农业高质量发展的重要一环，提升农业水资源生态韧性对于推进农业可持续发展具有重要意义。方法 文章基于DSPIR韧性评估框架，利用熵权-Topsis法对2007—2021年黄河流域9省区农业水资源生态韧性进行测度，借助ArcGIS图示法、Dagum基尼系数考察其时空演变特征，进一步运用障碍度模型多尺度识别韧性演化的主要障碍因子。结果 （1）时序演化上：研究期内黄河流域农业水资源生态韧性处于较低水平，均值为0.373，大体呈现波动式上升趋势。（2）空间分布上：基本形成“核心—外缘”韧性递减的层级空间结构；总体区域差异变小，上中下游区域间差异是总体差异的主要来源。（3）障碍因子上：准则层主要为压力（P），指标层主要为水治理法律法规、水资源政策文件、农业专利数和生态用水量。结论 应采取优化发展模式、实施分区管理、推进协同治理、完善顶层设计等政策，推动黄河流域农业水资源生态韧性水平进一步提升。

Abstract:

The ecological resilience of agricultural water resources is an important part of high-quality agricultural development, and improving the ecological resilience of agricultural water resources is of great significance for promoting sustainable agricultural development. Based on the DSPIR resilience assessment framework, this paper used the entropy weight-TOPSIS method to measure the ecological resilience of agricultural water resources in 9 provinces in the Yellow River Basin from 2007 to 2021, adopted the ArcGIS graphic method and Dagum Gini coefficient to investigate its spatio-temporal evolution characteristics, and further employed the barrier degree model to identify the main obstacle factors of resilience evolution at multiple scales. The results were showed as follows. (1) In terms of time series evolution, the ecological resilience of agricultural water resources in the Yellow River Basin was at a low level during the study period, with an average value of 0.373, generally showing a fluctuating upward trend. (2) In terms of spatial distribution, a hierarchical spatial structure with decreasing toughness of "core-outer edge" was basically formed. The overall regional differences became smaller, and the regional differences between upper, middle and lower reaches were the main sources of the overall differences. (3) In terms of obstacle factors, the criterion layer was mainly pressure (P), and the index layer was mainly water management laws and regulations, water resources policy documents, agricultural patents and ecological water consumption. In summary, policies such as optimizing development model, implementing regional management, promoting collaborative governance, and improving top-level design should be adopted to further improve the ecological resilience of agricultural water resources in the Yellow River Basin.