中国乡村振兴的时空演进特征与结构性关联——基于“三农”政策的历史沿革分析

THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION CHARACTERISTICS AND STRUCTURAL INTRINSIC CONNECTION OF CHINA'S RURAL REVITALIZATION——HISTORICAL PROCESS ANALYSIS BASED ON POLICIES RELATED TO AGRICULTURE, RURAL AREAS AND FARMERS

关键词:  乡村振兴  政策梳理  PP-IPM模型  时空特征  VAR模型  结构性关联

Key words:  rural revitalization  ordering policies  PP-IPM model  spatial-temporal characteristics  VAR model  structural correlation

摘要:

目的 在全面梳理“三农”政策历史进程的基础上，结合经济高质量发展理念构建了乡村振兴评价指标体系，分析了整体及不同维度下中国乡村振兴发展水平的时空演进特征，并探讨了乡村振兴各子维度间的结构性关联。方法 文章融入投影寻踪思想，引入PP?IPM模型，测度了2010—2022年我国30个省（市、区，不含港澳台和西藏）的乡村振兴发展水平，使用莫兰指数和基尼系数分析了四大板块乡村振兴发展差异，构建VAR模型并使用因果关系检验和脉冲响应方法探究了乡村振兴子维度间的结构性关联。结果 （1）新中国成立以来“三农”相关政策由“工业为主带动农业”逐步发展到“农业农村优先发展”；2010年以来乡村振兴发展水平的增速横跨了“高速—平缓—高速”3个阶段。（2）乡村振兴发展水平呈现空间正相关性，2013年前后差异明显增大，中部板块乡村振兴发展水平最高。（3）乡村振兴以产业兴旺为中心发展，与生态宜居、治理有效和生活富裕互促互进，而乡风文明独立于其他维度，始终保持匀速增长。结论 在共同富裕目标下，应重视各区域生态宜居、治理有效和生活富裕的发展速率一致，不断缩小区域差异；应重视乡风文明与其他子维度的连接，各维度间共同发展。

Abstract:

After comprehensively sorting the historical process of policies related to "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" policies, a system of rural revitalization evaluation indicator system is constructed in conjunction with the concept of high-quality economic development. The temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of the overall and sub-dimensional rural revitalization in China are analyzed, and the structural correlation between the sub-dimensional rural revitalization is discussed. The study integrated into an ideal point method based on projection pursuit, introduced the PP?IPM model, and also measured the level of rural revitalization development of 30 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions, excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and Xizang) from 2010 to 2022. And the Moran index and Gini coefficient were used to analyze the differences of rural revitalization development in the four sectors, then VAR model was constructed and the structural correlation among sub-dimensions of rural vitalization was explored by causality test and impulse response method. The results were showed as follows. (1) Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, the relevant policies related to "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" had gradually developed from "industry-based driving agriculture" to "agriculture and rural areas priority development". Since 2010, the growth rate of rural revitalization and development had spanned three stages of "high-flat-high" speed. (2) The development level of rural revitalization showed a positive spatial correlation, and the difference increased significantly before and after 2013, with the highest level of rural revitalization and development in the central sector. (3) Ecological livability, effective governance and rich life promoted and developed together with industrial prosperity, while rural civilization, as a single dimension, had a slightly different development trend and always maintained a constant growth rate. Finally, under the goal of common prosperity, attention should be paid to the same development rate of ecological livable, effective governance and prosperous life in each region, and the regional differences should be continuously narrowed. The connection between rural civilization and other sub-dimensions should be paid more attention, so that all dimensions can develop together.