农业风险冲击、县级农险公司服务质量与参保粮食规模经营户的种植行为

关键词:  粮食规模经营户  种植行为  农业风险冲击  农业保险服务质量

Key words:  grain scale business households  planting behavior  agricultural risk impact  agricultural insurance service quality

摘要:

目的 探究“农业风险冲击+农业保险服务”对粮食规模经营户种植行为的影响，以提升中国农业应对风险冲击的能力。方法 文章基于成本—收益分析框架，从“风险数量”这一广度指标，以及“灾损程度”这一强度指标探讨农业风险冲击对粮食规模经营户持续生产、品种改良和面积变更等种植行为的影响，进一步在参保前提下将县级农险公司服务质量纳入外部环境，厘清“农业风险冲击+农险服务质量”对粮食规模经营户种植行为的协同影响，使用山东省“县级农险公司—粮食规模经营户”的微观配套数据，并运用跨层中介调节模型进行验证。结果 （1）就持续生产而言，其与风险数量呈正相关，与灾损程度呈倒“U”型关系，当减产程度增高至5.79成时，持续生产意愿“由积极转向消极”；（2）就行为选择而言，相较调整种植面积，粮食规模经营户偏向利用品种改良应对风险数量增加；而随着灾损程度的增加，当减产程度增高至7.3成时，其种植行为由调整种植面积转向品种改良；（3）县级农险公司服务质量的提高既可以缓冲风险冲击对种植行为的影响，又可以直接增强其种植行为。结论 政府应积极介入强胁迫风险事件的防控、推动社会化服务体系的完善、加强农业基础设施建设、着重提高农业保险服务“软实力”，进而提升粮食规模经营户的持续经营能力。

Abstract:

To explore the impact of "agricultural risk shocks+agricultural insurance services" on the planting behavior of grain scale management households, in order to enhance the ability of Chinese agriculture to cope with risk shocks. Based on the framework of cost-benefit analysis, this paper discussed the impact of agricultural risk impact on the planting behaviors of large-scale grain operators such as sustainable production, variety improvement and area change from the breadth index of "number of risks" and the intensity index of "degree of disaster damage", and further incorporated the service quality of county-level agricultural insurance companies into the external environment under the premise of insurance participation. And it clarified the synergistic impact of "agricultural risk impact + agricultural insurance service quality" on the planting behavior of large-scale grain business households, and used the micro-supporting data of "county-level agricultural insurance company-large-scale grain business households" in Shandong province, and used the cross-layer intermediary adjustment model for verification. The results showed that: (1) In terms of sustainable production, there was a positive correlation with the number of risks, and an inverted U-shaped relationship with the degree of disaster damage. When the degree of production reduction reached 57.9%, the willingness to continue production "changes from positive to negative". (2) In terms of behavior choice, compared with adjusting planting area, grain scale business owners prefered to use variety improvement to cope with the increase in the number of risks; With the increase of the damage degree, when the reduction degree reached 73.0%, the planting behavior changed from adjusting the planting area to improving the varieties. (3) The improvement of service quality of county-level agricultural insurance companies could not only cushion the impact of risk impact on planting behavior, but also directly enhance their planting behavior. Therefore, the government should actively intervene in the prevention and control of strong stress risk events, promote the improvement of social service system, strengthen the construction of agricultural infrastructure, and focus on improving the "soft power" of agricultural insurance services, so as to enhance the sustainable operation ability of large-scale grain operators.