社保参与对农户土地转出行为的影响——基于内生转换Probit模型的实证分析

THE IMPACT OF SOCIAL SECURITY PARTICIPATION ON FARMERS' LAND TRANSFER BEHAVIOR——AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS BASED ON THE ENDOGENOUS SWITCHING PROBIT MODEL

关键词:  社保参与  新农合  新农保  内生转换Probit模型  土地转出

Key words:  social security participation  new rural cooperative medical scheme  new rural pension insurance  endogenous transformation Probit model  land transfer

摘要:

目的 探究社保参与对农户土地转出行为的影响，为加快引导农村土地经营权有序流转提供决策参考。方法 文章基于2020年中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）数据，利用内生转换Probit模型探究社保参与对农户土地转出行为的影响。结果 （1）参与新农合会抑制农户转出土地，而参与新农保会促进农户转出土地；（2）引入新农合和新农保的交互项之后，实证分析结果表明新农保能够有效缓解新农合的“枷锁效应”，从而促进农户转出土地；（3）中介效应分析表明，家庭医疗支出对农户土地转出行为的遮掩效应占比为3.6%，家庭养老金收入对农户土地转出行为的中介效应占比为7.9%，即家庭养老金收入的增长能够缓解家庭医疗支出对农户土地转出的不利影响；（4）异质性分析表明，东部地区新农合和新农保的交互作用对农户土地转出行为的促进作用相对于中部和西部地区更高。结论 政府应不断完善农村社会保险制度，提高农村社会保障制度的保障水平，弱化土地的保障功能，才能更好地促进农户释放和转出土地。

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to explore the impact of social security participation on farmers' land transfer behavior, and to provide a decision-making reference for accelerating the orderly circulation of land management rights in rural area. Based on the data of the 2020 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), the endogenous switching Probit model was used to explore the impact of social security participation on farmers' land transfer behavior. The results showed that: (1) Participation in the New Cooperative Medical Scheme inhibited farmers from transferring out of land, while participation in the New Rural Social Pension promoted farmers from transferring out of land. (2)After introducing the interaction terms of the New Cooperative Medical Scheme and the New Rural Social Pension, the empirical results showed that the New Rural Social Pension could effectively alleviate the "shackle effect" of the New Cooperative Medical Scheme, thereby promoting farmers from transferring out of land.(3)The analysis of the mediation effect showed that the masking effect of household medical expenditure on farmers' land transfer behavior accounted for 3.6%, and the mediation effect of household pension income on farmers' land transfer behavior accounted for 7.9%, that was, the growth of household pension income could alleviate the adverse impact of household medical expenditure on farmers' land transfer.(4)Heterogeneity analysis showed that the interaction between the New Cooperative Medical Scheme and the New Rural Social Pension in the eastern region had a higher promoting effect on farmers' land transfer behavior than in the central and western regions. Therefore, the government should continuously improve the rural social insurance system, improve the level of Rural Social Security System, and weaken the land security function, so as to better promote the release and transfer of land by rural households.