新疆地区人口城镇化水平及驱动机制研究

RESEARCH ON THE LEVEL AND DRIVING MECHANISM OF POPULATION URBANIZATION IN XINJIANG

关键词:  人口城镇化  城镇化水平  时空演化特征  水平评价  驱动机制

Key words:  population urbanization  urbanization level  spatial-temporal evolution characteristics  level evaluation  driving mechanism

摘要:

目的 综合评价新疆地区人口城镇化水平，揭示其空间格局与驱动机制，可为新疆地区人口城镇化优化空间布局与协调区域发展提供参考依据。方法 文章基于全国第五、六、七次分区县人口普查数据，对标SDG11，构建了新疆地区人口城镇化评价指标体系，使用熵值法与全局主成分分析法，综合评价了新疆地区人口城镇化水平，分析了县域人口城镇化水平的时空演化特征及差异，在此基础上，运用多尺度地理加权回归模型，探讨了县域人口城镇化的驱动机制。结果 （1）过去20年，新疆地区县域人口城镇化水平由中低水平转向中高水平，2020年中、高水平人口城镇化的县域占比合计达78.84%，但人口城镇化水平的空间差异仍然存在；（2）2000—2020年新疆人口城镇化水平增长的稳定程度提高了2.95%，但各县域人口城镇化水平区域差异明显，空间分布上表现为北疆>东疆>南疆；（3）影响新疆地区各县域人口城镇化水平的主要驱动力依次为内源力、市场力、外向力和行政力；其中内源力、市场力和外向力与人口城镇化水平都呈正相关关系，但各驱动力对人口城镇化的影响随时间变化呈现出不同特征。结论 新疆地区的人口城镇化发展不能仅仅依靠城镇自身的发展，更要注重以城带乡、城乡协调。

Abstract:

Comprehensive evaluation of the population urbanization level, revealing its spatial pattern and driving mechanism in Xinjiang can provide a reference for optimizing the spatial layout and coordinating the regional development of the population urbanization in the Xinjiang region. This article, according to SDG11, constructed an evaluation index system for population urbanization in the Xinjiang region. The level of population urbanization in the Xinjiang region was evaluated comprehensively, the spatiotemporal change characteristics and the discrepancies of county-level population urbanization were analyzed using the entropy method and global principal component analysis on the basis of the national fifth, sixth, and seventh partition county census data. The article also explored the driving mechanism of county-level population urbanization using a multi-scale geographically weighted regression model. The urbanization level of county population had shifted from a medium-low level to a medium-high level in the Xinjiang region over the past 20 years. The proportion of counties with medium and high levels of population urbanization accounted for a combined total of 78.84% in 2020, but there were still spatial differences in the level of population urbanization. The stable growth rate of population urbanization level had increased by 2.95% in the Xinjiang region between 2000 and 2020, but there was an obvious regional disparity in the level of population urbanization among different counties, with a spatial distribution pattern of Northern Xinjiang > Eastern Xinjiang > Southern Xinjiang. The main drivers affecting the level of population urbanization in various counties of the Xinjiang region were endogenous power, market force, outward force, and administrative power in that order; among them, endogenous power, market force, and outward force were positively correlated with the level of population urbanization. The impact of each driver on population urbanization, however, showed different characteristics over time. The development of population urbanization cannot rely solely on the development of cities themselves but should also focus on using cities to lead rural areas and achieve coordinated urban-rural development in the Xinjiang region.