数字经济发展对中国农业碳排放的影响研究

STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF DIGITAL ECONOMY DEVELOPMENT ON AGRICULTURAL CARBON EMISSIONS IN CHINA

关键词:  数字经济  农业碳排放  影响机制  分位数回归  空间溢出

Key words:  digital economy  agricultural carbon emissions  influencing mechanisms  quantile regression  spatial spillover

摘要:

目的 探讨我国数字经济发展对农业碳排放的影响及作用机制，对我国制定切实可行的碳减排政策具有一定的参考价值和指导作用。方法 文章基于2011—2021年中国30个省（自治区、直辖市，不含港澳台和西藏）的面板数据，采用排放因子法和熵权法分别构建了我国农业碳排放和数字经济发展的指标衡量体系，并综合运用双固定效应模型、中介效应模型和空间杜宾模型等方法进行实证分析。结果 数字经济的推广可以显著减少农业碳排放，数字经济发展水平提高一个单位可使农业碳排放减少355.26万t；且优化能源结构和技术进步是数字经济抑制农业碳排放的重要作用机制；数字经济的发展对邻近地区的农业碳排放具有显著的负向溢出效应；在不同区域、不同碳排放水平地区以及针对不同的碳排放源，数字经济对农业碳排放的影响具有异质性。结论 数字作为一种新的生产要素，其在农业领域的广泛应用，可以有效推动我国农业的低碳高质量发展。

Abstract:

This research aims to explore the impact of China's digital economy development on agricultural carbon emissions and the mechanism of its role, and provide a reference value and guidance for the formulation of practical carbon emission reduction policies in China.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) in China from 2011 to 2021, this study employed the emission factor method and entropy weight method to construct an indicator measurement system of China's agricultural carbon emissions and the development of digital economy respectively, and comprehensively applied the double fixed effect model, the mediation effect model and the spatial Durbin model to carry out the empirical analysis. The results showed that the promotion of digital economy could significantly reduce agricultural carbon emissions, and one unit increased in the level of digital economic development could reduce agricultural carbon emissions by 3.5526 million tons; and optimization of energy structure and technological progress was an important mechanism of the digital economy to inhibit agricultural carbon emissions; the development of the digital economy had a significant negative spillover effect on the neighboring regions of agricultural carbon emissions; in different regions, areas and for different sources of carbon emissions, the impact of the digital economy on agricultural carbon emission washeterogeneous. Therefore, this study concludes that digital, as a new production factor, can effectively promote the low-carbon and high-quality development of China's agriculture through its wide application in the agricultural field.