基于资源环境承载力的我国农业绿色发展评价及影响因素分析

EVALUATION AND INFLUENCING FACTOR ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL GREEN DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA BASED ON RESOURCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CARRYING CAPACITY

关键词:  资源环境承载力  农业绿色发展  影响因素  评价

Key words:  resource and environmental carrying capacity  agricultural green development  influencing factor  evaluate

摘要:

目的 绿色是农业发展的底色，评价资源环境承载能力下的我国农业绿色发展水平，分析其影响因素。方法 文章基于2003—2022年统计数据，采用熵值法从资源效益、环境效益、产出效益三方面定量评价了20年来我国农业绿色发展水平，同时利用灰色关联分析法对其影响因素进行剖析。结果 （1）2003—2022年我国农业绿色发展水平整体呈上升趋势，由0.361 0提升到0.761 4。其中资源效益指数值波动下降，由0.207 6降低到0.137 7；（2）环境效益指数值先减小后增大，2003—2012年由0.151 9降低到0.081 3，2013—2022年由0.073 9提升到0.290 3；（3）产出效益指数值稳定增长，由0.001 5增长到0.333 5。产出效益与农业绿色发展的关联度最高，为0.764 2，资源效益次之，环境效益最低。（4）二级指标中，水土流失治理面积、劳动生产率、农村居民可支配收入、农业总产值、农业财政投入指数、土地生产率与农业绿色发展的关联度较高；（5）二氧化硫排放量、农药使用强度、城乡居民收入比、化肥使用强度、森林覆盖率、单位总产值耗水量与农业绿色发展的关联度较低。结论 我国20年来农业绿色发展总体上处于较低水平，未来应当从农业资源利用效率、重视农业生态环境保护、加强农业科技创新力度等方面发力，在提升资源环境承载力的同时，推动农业绿色持续健康发展。

Abstract:

Green development is the foundation of agriculture. This research aims to evaluate the level of agricultural green development in China under the carrying capacity of resources and environment, and analyze its influencing factors. Based on statistical data from 2003 to 2022, the entropy method was employed to quantitatively evaluate the level of agricultural green development in China over the past 20 years from three aspects: resource efficiency, environmental efficiency, and output efficiency. At the same time, the grey correlation analysis method was adopted to analyze its influencing factors. The results were listed as follows. (1) From 2003 to 2022, the overall level of agricultural green development in China showed an upward trend, increasing from 0.361 0 to 0.761 4. The resource efficiency index fluctuated and decreased from 0.207 6 to 0.137 7. (2) The environmental efficiency index value first decreased and then increased, decreasing from 0.151 9 to 0.081 3 from 2003 to 2012, and increasing from 0.073 9 to 0.290 3 from 2013 to 2022. (3) The output efficiency index steadily increased from 0.001 5 to 0.333 5. The correlation between output efficiency and agricultural green development was highest at 0.764 2, followed by resource efficiency and environmental efficiency. (4) In the secondary indicators, there was a high correlation between the area of soil erosion control, labor productivity, disposable income of rural residents, total agricultural output value, agricultural fiscal input index, land productivity, and agricultural green development.（5）The correlation between sulfur dioxide emissions, pesticide use intensity, urban-rural income ratio, fertilizer use intensity, forest coverage, water consumption per unit of total output value, and agricultural green development was relatively low. So, in the past 20 years, the overall level of agricultural green development in China is relatively low. In the future, efforts should be made to improve the efficiency of agricultural resource utilization, attach importance to agricultural ecological environment protection, and strengthen agricultural scientific and technological innovation. While enhancing the carrying capacity of resources and environment, efforts should be made to promote sustainable and healthy agricultural green development.